Brisk Wind Advisory 115, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1255 PM AKDT MON MAR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND INITIALIZED
WELL AT 12Z. GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW UP THE WEST
COAST AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE
BERING SEA AND MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
IS IS CUTOFF WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOOTS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WILL BE ABSORBED IN TO 490 DAM LOW NEAR 65N 170E BY TUESDAY
MORNING...LONG WAVE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SOUTH. A 520 DAM LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER RUSSIA TO OVER
BARROW TO OVER OLD CROW THEN SOUTH OVER YAKUTAT. WEAK RIDGE OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING BUILDS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 548 DAM CENTER
OVER CAPE ROMANZOF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 518 DAM CLOSED LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CUTS THE RIDGE OFF AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...A
LITTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONTS WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 15
BELOW CELSIUS THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY RISING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW.

SURFACE...988MB LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING
NORTH INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW WILL
BREAK OFF THE MAIN LOW AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A 995MB LOW OVER NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY BREAKS OFF THE
MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES EAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE DECAYING FRONTAL BAND WILL EXTEND
FROM TIN CITY TO KING SALMON AND SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN FROM
POINT HOPE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO HOMER AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO EAGLE TO YAKUTAT AND SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN OVER THE
WEST COAST TUESDAY EVENING...THEN OVER NORTON SOUND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT IS CUT OFF AS A 1035 CLOSED HIGH. THE HIGH THEN
DRIFTS TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GOOD QPF NUMBERS OVER THE NULATO HILLS THIS EVENING THEN
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST WITH THE DECAYING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TRY AND BRING SNOW TO THE INTERIOR...GFS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS SO WILL BACK IT OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND FAIRBANKS.

ARCTIC COAST...NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AT 17/1341Z
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS UP OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. A FEW FLURRIES OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THE STRATUS MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE RIDGE BUILD
OVER THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY EAST 5 TO
15 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
15 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
AREA BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...HEAVIEST SNOW
THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA. WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CLEARING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

INTERIOR...PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DECAYING
FRONT...THEN SOME COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLDEST
MORNING WILL BE THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FOR
THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 5 BELOW IN THE HILLS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SDB MAR 14