Brisk Wind Advisory 108, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AKDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE
OVER NW CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ALASKA IN THE SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST COLD WITH PERIODS OF
SNOW WHILE THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
IN TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE SNOW AND PERIODS OF CHINOOK FLOW OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NOME TO BARTER ISLAND WILL
MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO BARROW BY 4AM WED...AND THEN
CONTINUING NW. THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS
TROUGH WITH CLOUDS DECREASING SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH.

A SECOND TROUGH FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE FROM GAMBELL
TO KING SALMON BY 4AM WED...TO KOTZEBUE TO MCGRATH BY 4PM
WED...AND TO POINT HOPE TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4AM WED. EXPECT
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS TROUGH.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -1C IN THE SE INTERIOR TO -24C IN NW
ALASKA. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH WED OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. WEST COAST WILL REMAIN COLD OR BECOME COLDER AND THE
INTERIOR WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WED AND THEN WARM AGAIN THU AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI.

SURFACE...
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE RUSSIA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THOUGH FRI.
A STRONG LOW NEAR COOK INLET WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TONIGHT...AND TO NEAR KOTZEBUE WED. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO KOTZEBUE TO MCGRATH BY
3PM WED...AND THEN DRIFT WEST AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
WITH THE LOW. WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOP THU ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. AT THIS POINT EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THU
AND IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR BUT AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

NE WINDS 20-30 KT ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED
AS THE LOW MOVES NW. CHINOOK WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES N AS WELL.

A SECOND LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WED WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THU AND TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
FRI. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CHINOOK WINDS TO THE ALASKA
RANGE WED PM THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALSO FEED MORE MOISTURE AND
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR THU AND FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM THU AND THEN MODELS
DIVERGE WITH NAM DEVELOPING A SECOND LOW IN THE GULF WHILE THE
ECMF AND GFS MAINTAIN A SINGLE CENTER. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ207.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB MAR 14