Brisk Wind Advisory 106, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 AM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODEL INITIALIZED WELL ON
THE MAJOR FEATURES. PATTERN CHANGE IS ONGOING AND ALL THE MODELS
ARE HANDLING IT SIMILARLY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED 501 DAM LOW OVER NORTHWEST MAINLAND
MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BERING STRAIT
BY TUESDAY MORNING. 499 DAM CLOSE LOW 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ILIAMNA THIS EVENING THEN BE
ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE
FIRST MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL FOLLOW WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES
FROM NOME TO EAGLE THIS MORNING. THE ISOTHERM WILL PIVOT ON A
POINT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH OVER
THE MAINLAND AND COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE
500 HPA LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA.

SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL BREAK DOWN AS
962MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH TO BE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT
988MB THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE 200NM SOUTH OVER
SAND POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KODIAK
ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 973MB. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE DEVELOPING TODAY AS FIRST LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONGER
CHINOOK FLOW WITH THE SECOND LOW ON THURSDAY. BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXTENDING EAST OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE...PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. EAST OF
TANANA AND SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THE INTERIOR WILL MOSTLY
BE SHADOWED OUT OF THE SNOW...THOUGH SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. EXPECT A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION OUT WEST
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BRING MORE
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST
COAST THIS MORNING. MODIS 11 UM BT AT 10/0706Z SHOWS STRATUS JUST
OFFSHORE OF BARROW MOVING SOUTHWEST. BARROW SHOULD CLEAR LATER
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT Z201 WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT LOWS
FOR MOST AREAS TO BE 20 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT WITH SOME 50 BELOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GETTING PRETTY COMPLICATED OUT
WEST. SNOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AROUND NOON TODAY
THEN SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEWARD PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA
COAST WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THOSE
AREAS AS THE FRONT ROTATES OVER THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL
BE IN THE LOWER YUKON AND NULATO HILLS UPSLOPE AREAS WITH UP TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW ENDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT SPREADS FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LOWER
YUKON BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INLAND BEGIN WARMING
TODAY WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD
AIR IS PULLED DOWN THE COAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING LATE TODAY.

INTERIOR...SUNNY EARLY TODAY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS MOST AREAS
WILL BE SHADOWED OUT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TODAY
WITH WARMING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS LATER IN THE WEEK
WILL REACH INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. NEXT
FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
SNOW SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK WILL PRODUCE WINDS
NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE FIRST
EVENT AND SLIGHT STRONGER WINDS WITH THURSDAYS FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAR 14