Brisk Wind Advisory 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 PM AKST TUE DEC 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN PERSIST WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS ROTATING WEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA BY WED AM. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM BRISTOL BAY SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
RIDGE THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN A TROUGH IN THE HIGH CANADIAN
ARCTIC WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE
REACHING DAWSON CANADA TO TANANA FRI. MEANWHILE A LOW SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO OUTER NORTON SOUND
FRIDAY AM.

SURFACE...964 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA 3AM THU THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THU NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OCCLUSION WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM ANVIK
TO GALENA TO FORT YUKON 3PM WED. A 994 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT TO 80 MILES WEST OF
NOME 3PM FRI AT 1008 MB. 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE THU NIGHT AND FRI.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER EAST-WEST TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS THE NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BRISK TO GALE WINDS
HAS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE INLAND PLAIN. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RELAX ONLY A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. EVEN SO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC IT WILL PUSH THE GRADIENT
INLAND SO EAST WINDS ALONG THE PLAIN WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT AND
THU. EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WED NIGHT AND
THU OVER EASTERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SNOW. VISIBILITIES OVER THE EASTERN COAST
NOT DROPPING TOO LOW IN BLOWING SNOW BUT BEARS WATCHING WHILE
WINDS REMAIN STRONG.

WESTERN ALASKA...CLOUDS OVER COASTAL ZONES DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES EAST. MORE CLOUDS MOVING
NORTH WITH INCOMING OCCLUSION WED...PROBABLY SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SNOW INTERIOR ZONES WED AND WED NIGHT. BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH TO OUTER NORTON SOUND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW. FIRST WITH THE INCOMING OCCLUSION SOME AREAS
COULD GET AROUND 1 INCH ACCUMULATION WED AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY AND THE FORTY MILE
COUNTRY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES WITH THE OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH...ALONG WITH EAST WINDS
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION...BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY.
SO SHOULD WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER
DUSTING OF SNOW THU AS A WEAK VORTICITY CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR FAIRBANKS THAN THE WEAKENING OCCLUSION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI
EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW...WITH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR TURNING COLDER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
SKIES THERE CLEAR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

JL DEC 13