Blizzard Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
532 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT TO 12Z FRI AND THEN THE NAM DIVERGES ONCE
AGAIN. THE NAM SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC AS IT ATTEMPTS TO RESONATE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES KICK THE MAIN LOW BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DO IT MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND
THESE ARE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO FILL AS THERE IS A PLETHORA OF
COLD AIR FOR IT TO TAP INTO ON ITS BACK SIDE. A 993 LOW IN THE
GULF IS SENDING YET ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND GIVE THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD.

AS THE EXTREMELY DEEP LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO THE BERING
SEA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME EXTREMELY TIGHT OVER NEARLY
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE HIGH NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BROOKS RANGE
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE PASSES.
IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE HAUL ROAD WILL BE IMPASSABLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT ZONE 220 SUMMITS WILL BE IMPASSABLE BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ON FRIDAY.

THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
THE INITIAL SET UP AND THEN THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
THEREAFTER WILL INCREASE.

STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
CHINOOK FLOW TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND .

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ213-AKZ220.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ220.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF JAN 14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1048 AM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     SNOW             15 WNW TANACROSS        63.45N 143.83W
01/16/2014  E7.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FROM ROBERTSON RIVER DURING
            THE LAST 24 HOURS

1040 AM     HEAVY SNOW       15 WNW TANACROSS        63.45N 143.83W
01/16/2014  M2.2 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR ROBERSTON RIVER DURING
            THE LAST HOUR ENDING AT 1040 AKST.

&&

LHUBER