Storm Warning 26, NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK52 PAFC 180019
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 955 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY THEN INLAND OVERNIGHT. A 951 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF SAINT
PAUL MOVES TO 150 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AT 981 MB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT AT 957 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-181500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-181500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT EXCEPT 35 KT E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.   

$$

PKZ160-181500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-181500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF PORT MOLLER...SW WIND 45 KT. E OF PORT MOLLER...S
WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-181500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-181500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-181500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-181500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-181500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-181500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ176-181500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-181500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-181500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-181500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-181500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ181-181500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-181500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 17 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 45 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 45 KT. E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST THU JAN 16 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WAVE WHICH BROUGHT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS FULLY OCCLUDED AND
HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE LOW TO MID 950S. THE LOW WILL BECOME
STACKED WITH THE UPPER CENTER AND MOVE TO OVER THE AK PEN FRI
AFTERNOON WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 950S. A SECONDARY AS EQUALLY STRONG
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT BOWS NORTH INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS NORTH AND EAST
AND EXTENDS ACROSS INTERIOR SW ALASKA...THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL...TO
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
CONTINUES NORTH AND EAST AND WEAKENS SAT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS OVERALL INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN INITIALIZING THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WERE FAIRLY MINOR. A SHIP OB NEAR THE LOW CENTER INDICATED
THAT THE ECMWF 18Z FORECAST POSITION WAS BEST...BUT THAT THE PRESSURE
WAS OFF BY A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS. FORECAST TRENDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH
SAT MORNING...THEN THE NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WARM...WINDY...AND WET CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRI AS THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AK PEN AND THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND UPPER JET
SUPPORT BRING STRONG GAP AND CHINOOK CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRI MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND PRODUCE VARIED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA FRI WITH QPF VALUES IN THE 3
TO 5 INCH RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND CHANGE
MORE TOWARD SNOW ON SAT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.

.SW ALASKA...
THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AK
PEN WILL BRING WARMING TEMPS AND WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO SW
ALASKA. COLD DRAINAGE FLOW INITIALLY WILL KEEPS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
AS MOISTURE REACHES THE DELTA LATE TONIGHT. THE ACCOMPANIED STRONG
WINDS WILL BRING IN BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
WILL BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC FRI AS WARM AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM FRI AS DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS SW ALASKA SAT AS COLD AIR
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
THE STORM MOVING SNOW WILL BRING BLIZZARD POTENTIAL TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MAY
BECOME QUESTIONABLE IF THE WARMER AIR SPREADS TOO FAR WEST TONIGHT.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS END OVER THESE AREAS FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STAYING IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK A SEASONABLY WARM AND VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. A COLD AND SHOWERY
AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE BERING. BETWEEN THE TWO AIR
MASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING
WHERE THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL CLASH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 185 195
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 111
         FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 155 160 165 170
         171 173 174 176 179 180 181 185 411 412 413 414
         STORM WARNING 119 150 172 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 180 185 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 14