Storm Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

267 
FZAK52 PAFC 131236
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 MB LOW NEAR 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF KIPNUK WILL MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A 970 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE WESTERN GULF AT
THE SAME STRENGTH TUE MORNING. A 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-140300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-140300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-140300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-140300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-140300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-140300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 13
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-140300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-140300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM SAINT PAUL
ISLAND N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...N WIND 25 KT. S OF CAPE NEWENHAM...SW
WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-140300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-140300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS IS MOVING EAST AND FILLING.
THERE IS STILL APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE WITH THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND BERING SEA AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE FLOW...BUT THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SUCH THAT THE SCOPE OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAS SHRUNK TO THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SHARPER AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVES HAVE SUPPORTED SOME STEADIER SNOW THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND
OUT ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THE
LION'S SHARE OF IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND COASTAL AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE AREA A SERIES OF
SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AROUND 500 MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST. THESE WAVES AREA DEEPENING AS UPSTREAM ENERGY FROM AN
UPPER-LOW SOUTH OF KISKA HELP TO DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE AOR MID
TO LATE WEEK IS A LOW WHICH HAS EJECTED OF NORTHERN JAPAN NEAR 40N
160E WHICH IS MOVING EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE LOW EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND QUICKLY PUSHING TOWARDS
YAKUTAT ON TUE AND AWAY FROM THE AOR. QPF WITH THE EMBDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING UP THROUGH THE MESSY FLOW ALOFT IN SOUTHCENTRAL AK WERE NOT
CAPTURED WELL AT ALL. MODELS SHOW THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS MOVING
INLAND NEAR KIPNUK MON MORNING AND DISSIPATING BY MON EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING WAVES SOUTH OF UNALASKA. THE
PHASING WAVES ARE DEPICTED BECOMING A SURFACE LOW 450 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KODIAK CITY AT 975 MB MON MORNING WHICH MOVES TO NEAR SITKINAK AT
969 MB LATE MON NIGHT...BEFORE TRACKING QUICKLY UP TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA ON TUE. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE SHIFT WESTWARD IN
TRACK...AND IS A SLOWER SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WAS
CAPTURED INITIALLY BY THE GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF. THE NAM AND GEM BOTH
STILL GENERALLY SHOW A TRACK EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE SUPERIOR PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES BASED ON THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY COMPARED TO THE GEM/NAM. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED SOLUTION...THE GFS WRAPS THE RESIDUAL FILLING
SURFACE LOW THROUGH COOK INLET AND THE MAT-SU VALLEYS ON
TUE...WHEREAS THE ECMWF TRACKS IT MORE TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS PHASED LOW MOVING UP THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL ON
TUE...THE SYSTEM EJECTING OFF JAPAN WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO AROUND 400
MILES SOUTH OF ATKA BY TUE NIGHT. A STRONG WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF AND POKE INTO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON WED. THIS WARM NOSE GETS A REINFORCING SHOT ON
THU FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING LOW SUPPORTED BY THE VERY
AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...QPF HAS NOT BE SAMPLED WELL BY THE MODELS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE LATEST RUN OF THE WRF AT LEAST HAS
INITIALIZED SOME OF THE SNOW IN UPPER COOK INLET...AND SUGGESTS THE
BULK ENDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AND IS CORROBORATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK
EDGE TO THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER OTHER SUBTLE UPPER WAVES IN
THIS MESSY FLOW CAN STILL SNEAK THROUGH AND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOL SIDE...LESS FORCING IS NECESSARY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW.
LIGHT SNOWS WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATES EASTWARD.

IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC LOW THAT MOVES UP TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND
MON...MUCH OF THE AOR IS WELL BELOW FREEZING. AS MOISTURE MOVES
UP...SHOULD SEE ALL AREAS START OUT AS SNOW...INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
MON AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW RAIN TO
MIX IN BY MON EVENING ON THE ISLAND. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND WILL SEE SNOW OVERSPREAD LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG COASTAL AREAS WHERE RAIN MAY MIX
IN AT TIMES. SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON
PASS...THOUGH WIND STRENGTH NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS
JUNCTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS INCHES CLOSER TO THE SW MAINLAND
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW IN BRISTOL BAY TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW...BUT AS IT PUSHES ASHORE NEAR KIPNUK MON
MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX A BIT AND CURTAIL THE
THREAT. SNOW TAPERS OFF AS THE LOW DISSIPATES THROUGH THE DAY MON.
SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF STEADIER SNOW MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE N
PAC LOW NEARING KODIAK ISLAND. LION'S SHARE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE
FOCUSED IN AREAS OF STRONGER LIFT IN THE EASTERN PART OF BRISTOL BAY.
SHOULD STORM TRACK CONTINUE TO TREND WESTWARD...MAY NEED TO EXPAND
THE SNOW THREAT AS WELL. SHOWERS ALONG THE AKPEN SHOULD BECOME
STEADIER SNOW/RAIN AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION AS WELL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOME
UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCES PUSHING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE BERING MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF PRECIP OR STRONG WINDS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. COASTAL AREAS WILL
BEAR THE BRUNT IN TERMS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION (RAIN)...BUT
WARMING TEMPERATURS EVEN INLAND WILL LEAD TO MIXED OR LIQUID PRECIP
THREATS AS WELL. THE BERING AND CHAIN LOOK TO REMAIN MORE IN THE
THROAT OF THE UPPER-LVL TROUGHING...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WEATHER
FEATURES STEERING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM...132 150 352
         GALE...119 120 130 131 138 155 160 165 170 171 172 180 351
                412 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181 185 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...

MALOY