Storm Warning 146, NWS Anchorage, AK

221 
FZAK62 PAFC 230010
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231445-
310 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 MB NEAR 49N 169E WILL DEEPEN TO 955 MB NEAR 55N 168E TUE
AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN TO 964 MB NEAR 53N 168E WED AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
TUE AND THE EASTERN BERING WED WITH A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
57N 154W BY WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING WED.

$$

PKZ411-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
310 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 13 TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 TO 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S OF 56N...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS
15 TO 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
310 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
310 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 56N.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

101 
FZAK62 PAFC 231259
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
359 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240315-
359 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 956 MB LOW NEAR 53N 175E WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 957 MB NEAR
56N 172E WED MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 971 MB NEAR
54N 171E THU MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL BERING TODAY AND THE EASTERN BERING EARLY WED. A
SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING WED
WITH A 983 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 58N 173W THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-240315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
359 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 TO 65 KT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF 56N...SW WIND 25
TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON SEAS 18 TO 34
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
S OF 56N...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 32 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-240315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
359 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF 175W...SE WIND
35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 29 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-240315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
359 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ414-240315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
359 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

415 
FZAK62 PAFC 240003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 957 MB LOW NEAR 56N 176E WILL WEAKEN TO 968 MB NEAR 54N 167E
WED MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 978 MB NEAR 51N 162E
THU MORNING. A 976 MB LOW NEAR 47N 171E WILL TRACK TO 54N 180 
WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...E WIND 40 TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING
S 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT. SNOW. S OF 56N...SW WIND 40 TO
55 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT EARLY BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 16 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT
DURING THE EVENING. S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S TO E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE JET REMAINS LARGELY SUPPRESSED WELL
SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA...WITH A 200 KT JET EXITING ASIA AND
HEADING INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND A 180 KT JET COMING OUT OF
THE TROUGH AND SLAMMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A DECAYING
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO
ALOFT. THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA THAN HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY. A MORE FOCUSED BAND OF
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IS PERSISTING FROM WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND UP TO EAGLE RIVER AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOWFALL
TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 4-7 INCHES NEAR PORTAGE TO UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK
CIRCULATION EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND HEADING NORTHWARD...WITH
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AS THIS LOW TEAMS UP WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN AT
500 MB TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE GULF.

OUT WEST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ARE ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO STREAM SOUTHWARD FROM THE BERING STRAIT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...A MATURE STORM NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
OF RUSSIA IS SLINGING A FRONT TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH
WINDS AT SHEMYA ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE IMMENSELY WITH THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION IN THE GULF
AND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MAIN
PLAYERS ARE THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THAT WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND GIVE AN EXTRA SHOT IN THE
ARM TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. THANKFULLY THIS IS A BROAD-SCALE
FEATURE AND IS HIGH CONFIDENCE. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE ARE THE
MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL AS THE ABILITY OF ANY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS THIS CONVECTION (FOR EXAMPLE NEAR WESTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM). THE BOTTOM LINE TODAY IS THAT THE SUBTLE DETAILS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY PLAY AN EVEN BIGGER ROLE THAN
NORMAL IN DETERMINING WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AND OUT OF NECESSITY A
MORE BROAD- BRUSHED APPROACH WILL BE EMPLOYED AND RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY UNTIL SUCH A TIME AS
THE ATMOSPHERE TIPS ITS HAND ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN. AS YOU CAN
IMAGINE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

OUT WEST...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BECOMING THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER WEST THAN THE REST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE...AND WITH GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
ECMWF...WILL TREND THE FORECAST THAT DIRECTION. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS
THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE FLOW REGIME DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL. COLDER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE GULF AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO STABILIZE INTO MID-WEEK. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT BUT COULD ADD UP FAST FOR ANY AREA
WHERE BANDING SITS OVERHEAD FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. FOR
THE MOST PART ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY AS OPEN CELLED IN
NATURE BUT SOME BANDING FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TURNAGAIN
ARM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

NORTHERLY FLOW IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 1K
FEET WHERE SHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG...AS HAS OCCURRED TODAY IN PARTS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY. EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER COAST OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA OUTER COASTLINE TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE ALASKA
AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS BY BERING SEA STANDARDS THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME LIKELY RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE EUROPEAN (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GLOBAL CANADIAN) MODEL IS PREFERRED WITH ITS MORE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT. THE GFS (WITH SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE NAM) KEEPS THE LOW A BIT MORE WEST OF THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS BUT ALSO MORE ANNULAR. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...WITH THE FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION OF
THE LOW THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF POWERFUL WESTERLY
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. IF THE EUROPEAN IS
CORRECT...A THREAT OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD ALSO REACH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ITS NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.

THE PRECEDING WEATHER FRONT WILL ALSO CARRY A SWATH OF STRONG
WINDS TO STORM-FORCE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT RACES
ACROSS THE BERING SEA...INTENSIFYING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
BERING MONDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE FASTER EC WAS ALSO
PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN IN MOTION THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTER DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WESTERN BERING AS A LONGWAVE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A POLAR LOW IN THE ARCTIC
FORCES THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA MID WEEK. THE PATTERN FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY THE LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING...HOWEVER THE POLAR LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST COAST TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVES
FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY ALONG THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRIVEN
FROM THE BERING LOW. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON THE
UPCOMING SHORTWAVES AND THUS CHANGES IN LONG RANGE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 178.
         GALES 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 185 411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH