Storm Warning 138, NWS Anchorage, AK

583 
FZAK51 PAFC 201804 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210430-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 954 MB LOW MOVES TO 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT THU MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY THU
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW MOVES TO 60 NM NORTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 966
MB FRI MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF.

$$

PKZ119-210430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-210430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-210430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-210430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-210430-
PORT VALDEZ-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-210430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-210430-
VALDEZ ARM-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-210430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-210430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-210430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-210430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-210430-
CHINIAK BAY-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-210430-
MARMOT BAY-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-210430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-210430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-210430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-210430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
904 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

252 
FZAK51 PAFC 210020
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211345-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 953 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 965 MB
IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY FRI EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY
FRI MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-211345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211345-
PORT VALDEZ-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211345-
VALDEZ ARM-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
 BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211345-
CHINIAK BAY-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211345-
MARMOT BAY-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT .
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
320 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR THE OUTER
BAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
537 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE ANCHOR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN BERING
SEA WITH NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND. OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HAS BEEN FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY...WHERE A STRENGTHENING DISTURBANCE HAS
BROUGHT RAIN TO AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL NEAR ANCHORAGE AND WET SNOW
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 750 FEET ELEVATION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MAT-SU VALLEY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREA OF INTEREST RESIDES WITH LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS JUST FINISHING RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY TO
A LOCATION ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT...THEN DRIFT
NORTH AND THEN WEST NEAR OR OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
ONE AREA OF DISAGREEMENT RESIDES IN WHERE EXACTLY TO STALL OUT THE
STRENGTHENING LOW CURRENTLY WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. IT SEEMS
AS THOUGH ALL MODELS NOW STALL THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA
PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...THEN DRIFT IT WEST ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA BEFORE LOOPING BACK TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PENINSULA AND DRIFTING EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THU AND THEN REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH MOVED THROUGH ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU TODAY WILL RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN THIS
DISTURBANCE AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO ROLL BACK IN. THUS...ANY LIQUID ON THE
ROADS WILL FREEZE BACK UP.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE GULF LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
THE ONE WHICH MOVED THROUGH TODAY. THE MORE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
HOWEVER IS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK OUT AHEAD OF THE
DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS IT CURVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW WILL CONFINE THE BULK
OF PRECIP TO UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE WEST
SIDE OF COOK INLET.

THE DEEP LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE GULF AND THUS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND/KENAI PENINSULA AREAS. NOT ONLY WILL THE LOW
STALL ALONG THE AKPENN...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE SPLIT WITH SOME ENERGY HEADED WESTWARD AROUND THE
LOW CENTER AND SOME SHOOTING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW LEADS TO A SLOWING AND WEAKENING FRONT AS IT
ELONGATES UNDER THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND CONFINED PRECIP PRIMARILY TO WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA.

LACKING ANY WIND OR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
AS ONE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING WEAKENS A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS NEW LOW WILL START TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND TO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE TOMORROW. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
STILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. BOTH LOWS WILL ALSO BRING WITH THEM RAIN
TO THE ALEUTIANS AND IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. OUT WEST
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS HAVE REALLY COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD IN THE PAST DAY OR SO...WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS OVER/NEAR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AT THIS
POINT...BUT THERE WILL BE A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND TO THE WEATHER
DURING THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN US THIS WEEK...MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
WILL BRING A TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE WEAKENED LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165
180 351 352 FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MBS