Storm Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

123 
FZAK62 PAFC 081207
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090215-
307 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 930 MB LOW NEAR 55N 171E WILL MOVE TO 55N 179W AT 945 MB TONIGHT
THEN TO 58N 176W AT 957 MB SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-090215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 36 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 30 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-090215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE TO SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-090215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 TO 30 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 TO 29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 25 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-090215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
853 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SOUTH OF KODIAK A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH.
THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS LOW HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT.
EXTENDING UP THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING THAT WILL KEEP THIS LOW FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER EAST. OUT
WEST A WEAKENING RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MAKING
ROOM FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO HEAD INTO THE WESTERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE REMAINS
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PRESSURE OF THE MAIN TWO
LOWS...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IS THE LOW PLACEMENT FOR THE BERING STORM. FOR THE
MOST PART THE EC...NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY CLOSE BUT THE GEM STAYS
NORTH OF THE OTHERS. IT DOES STAY AT A PRETTY CONSISTENT SPEED
WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR ITS TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO
AREAS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THE MAJORITY WILL BE RAIN ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND WILL MIX WITH SNOW FURTHER INLAND AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ONLY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT PAST THE COASTAL RANGES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY
LIGHTEN UP SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT COMES IN SUNDAY BRINGING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. KODIAK WILL ALSO SEE RAIN AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE ISLAND AND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE RAIN
WILL LIGHTEN UP SATURDAY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES BUT MORE RAIN WILL
COME WHEN THE NEXT FRONT GETS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK IS BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND PRIMARILY SNOW ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
AROUND BRISTOL BAY WILL LIGHTEN UP UNTIL A FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WARMER AIR THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING THE RAIN LINE FURTHER NORTH IN
BRISTOL BAY. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
ALSO SEE SOME SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL START TO MIX WITH
RAIN AS MORE OF THE WARM AIR PUSHES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO
THE ISLANDS THAT WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FURTHER OUT
WEST...WINDS FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AS
THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WESTERN BERING. IT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
BUT STRONGER WINDS AND RAIN WILL BE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY
THIS MORNING BRINGING WARNING LEVEL GUSTS. THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW
ITSELF WILL SLOW DOWN BUT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE LOW
CENTER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND WILL MAKE IT TO THE
CENTRAL BERING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING TO BRING RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING EXTRATROPICAL
LOW TO THE BERING WILL DISSIPATE EVER SO SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES
OF WEAK LOWS THROUGH THE BERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE THESE WEAK LOWS WILL DEVELOP.
MULTIPLE WAVES ALSO LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND THE
GULF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LATER
NEXT WEEK...THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A
STRENGTHENING YUKON RIDGE WILL SPREAD ONTO THE MAINLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF COOL AND QUIET WEATHER
THAT WOULD LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
937 AM AKST FRI NOV 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SHEMYA                  52.72N 174.12E
11/07/2014  E85 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            SHEMYA OBSERVATION IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS
            OF 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

&&

TPEPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1105 AM AKST FRI NOV 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SHEMYA                  52.72N 174.12E
11/07/2014  M96 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            SHEMYA OBSERVATION REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 70 MPH
            WITH GUSTS UP TO 96 MPH.

&&

JPW