Small Craft Advisory 962, NWS Anchorage, AK

901 
FZAK52 PAFC 040004
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041300-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF
NIKOLSKI THU AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 976 MB...TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
UNALASKA FRI MORNING THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON. A 998 MB
LOW 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THEN STALL
80 NM SOUTH OF SAINT MATTHEW THU AFTERNOON. A 958 MB LOW 600 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA FRI MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-041300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...VARIABLE
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-041300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-041300-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-041300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-041300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-041300-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 15 KT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-041300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-041300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 20 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-041300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 25 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-041300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 20 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-041300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-041300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-041300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-041300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-041300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-041300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-041300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

921 
FZAK52 PAFC 041254
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050200-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 145 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 290 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR THU NIGHT AT 978 MB...THEN DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON.
A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS THROUGH
BRISTOL BAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A NORTHWEST
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 385 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA FRI MORNING AT
952 MB...THEN WEAKENS TO 960 MB 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF AMCHITKA FRI
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-050200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-050200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-050200-
BRISTOL BAY-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-050200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-050200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-050200-
UNALASKA BAY-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-050200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-050200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-050200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 18 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-050200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-050200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 16 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-050200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-050200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-050200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-050200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-050200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-050200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
354 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

345 
FZAK52 PAFC 050000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051215-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 250 NM SOUTH OF
NIKOLSKI LATE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH WELL INTO THE PACIFIC FRI
MORNING. A 957 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA LATE FRI MORNING
WILL MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTH OF ATKA SAT AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN
TO 968 MB.

$$

PKZ150-051215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM CHIRIKOF ISLAND W.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. FROM CHIRIKOF ISLAND W...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051215-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051215-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM DUTCH HARBOR E.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 35 KT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY
NEAR THE COAST.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR
THE COAST.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COAST.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT N AND E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND
EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW HAS MADE IT THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. OUT WEST WEAK RIDGING IS
MOVING IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY BUT ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION OF THE ACTUAL LOW CENTERS. THE NAM
IS MOVING A LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS BUT THE MODELS ARE ALL DISAGREEING ON ITS EXACT LOCATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE DISCREPANCIES BECOME GREATER AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DIMINISHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MODEL STABILITY INDICES INDICATE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL TOTALS
ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 DEGREES CELSIUS AND SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UP TO 200 J/KG OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL HELP TO FOCUS LIFT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN UPSLOPE AREAS. THE
MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SO FAVORED AREAS FOR
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION INCLUDE THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY.

WITH MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AREAS PRIMARILY SNOW AMOUNTS.
IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUCH AS THIS THERE CAN BE LARGE VARIATION IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER SMALL DISTANCES. THE MODELS DO SEEM TO
BE KEYING ON ONE STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL FOCUS ON THIS
FEATURE AND INCREASE BOTH POPS AND QPF OUT AHEAD OF THIS.
PRECIPITATION DID CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA TODAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR FROM TURNAGAIN ARM
AND COOK INLET. HOWEVER AS WINDS DIE DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MARGINALLY COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW. IN FACT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KODIAK ISLAND AND RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DRY OUT THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SHIFT THE FOCUS
TO WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS BUT WITH WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
COMING UP FROM THE PACIFIC EXPECT WARM AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THESE
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BERING SEA PUSHES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SHOWERY REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. THIS
WILL BRING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MAINLY WEST OF BETHEL. THIS WILL
CREATE A NARROW BAND OF STEADY SNOWFALL WHICH WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND ONE INCH TO AREAS WEST OF BETHEL. LOCAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE DELTA INCLUDING BETHEL WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OFF THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE
BERING SEA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WILL FLATTEN OUT IN THE COMING DAY AS
THE LOW ENTERING THE BERING SEA PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS WILL BRING
STEADY RAINFALL TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A SHOWERY REGIME OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING
SEA. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX
WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BERING SEA AS WELL
AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE SEVERAL GALE FORCE LOWS
TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS
AND CENTRAL BERING SEA BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK FORMING. SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA AND GULF WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY SATURDAY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW INLAND
FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN GULF. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE
WESTERN KENAI WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRYING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 176 177.
NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK/SAM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB/JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING...MC
SEA/ALEUTIANS... LONG TERM...PD