Small Craft Advisory 957, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA IS PUSHING A FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
IS BEING BROUGHT IN WITH THIS FRONT THAT TURNED THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. IT IS ALSO WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THIS
FRONT IS NOW STARTING TO MAKES ITS WAY TO SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE DISCREPENCIES WITH THE LOW POSITIONS. THE GFS
IS SUGGESTING A STRONGER AND FASTER SOLUTION WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS ARE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT. WITH THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO PLACE THE
LOWS UNTIL THERE BECOMES A CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER LATE ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SNOW TO
AREAS ALL AROUND THE SOUTHCENTRAL. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT TO CHANGE THE SNOW
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF CLAM GULCH
THAT WILL KEEP COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE FOR THE
RAIN TO BECOME FREEZING RAIN. COLD AIR WILL THEN COME BACK INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING TURNING THE FREEZING RAIN BACK TO SNOW.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL STAY COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW THE
WHOLE TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WARM AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS BRINGING IN RAIN TO LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS EVENING. DURING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COLDER AIR WILL COME BACK IN AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL START TO TURN THE RAIN
BACK TO SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN LIGHTEN UP BUT LAST INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SHOWERY PATTERN OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING
IN TO TAKE ITS PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE MODELS TO
CHANGE THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE BERING SEA AND THE GULF...HOWEVER NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH
THE NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE TO STRETCH INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN COPPER
RIVER BASIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER OTHER THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN WEST OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS AND ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SNOW MIXED AND RAIN. THE
BERING SEA REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY SHOWERY AND GUSTY. THIS
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP AND
STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL CANADA WILL CAUSE AN
OMEGA BLOCK TO TEMPORARILY FORM...THEN POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO BREAK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES 101 111 121 125.
MARINE...STORMS 177 178 411.
  GALES 132 138 150 155 170 172 173 174 175 176 185 352 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1051 PM AKST MON DEC 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FREEZING RAIN    3 SW FRITZ CREEK        59.70N 151.36W
12/01/2014  U0.00 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            EAST END ROAD FROM PIONEER AVENUE TO OLD EAST END ROAD -
            FREEZING RAIN, ICY PATCHES, ICE GLAZE.

1015 PM     FREEZING RAIN    6 WNW HOMER             59.67N 151.68W
12/01/2014  U0.00 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STERLING HIGHWAY FROM MILEPOST 156 TO HOMER FERRY
            TERMINAL ROAD. FREEZING RAIN,ICE GLAZE, ICY PATCHES.

&&

RSD