Small Craft Advisory 945, NWS Anchorage, AK

773 
FZAK52 PAFC 281217
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-290115-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 MB LOW 180 NM NW OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN TO 1011 MB NEAR THE BERING STRAIT SAT AFTERNOON. A 981 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 160 NM N OF KISKA EARLY SUN
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-290115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-290115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ160-290115-
BRISTOL BAY-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-290115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ170-290115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ171-290115-
UNALASKA BAY-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-290115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ173-290115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ174-290115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ175-290115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ176-290115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ177-290115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ178-290115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-290115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ180-290115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-290115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-290115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
317 AM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

210 
FZAK52 PAFC 290039
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291345-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 MB LOW 160 NM WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON. A 979 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 560 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON AND
STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB 330 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-291345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-291345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-291345-
BRISTOL BAY-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-291345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF PORT MOLLER. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-291345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-291345-
UNALASKA BAY-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-291345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-291345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-291345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND BECOMING S TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-291345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8
FT.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-291345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-291345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW THEN RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-291345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
SHEMYA W...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-291345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW THEN
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-291345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-291345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-291345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2014

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

079 
FZAK52 PAFC 291245
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300145-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 300 NM S OF AMCHITKA THIS
EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE 170 NM S OF ADAK SUN MORNING. A
SECONDARY 983 MB LOW WILL FORM 170 NM N OF AMCHITKA TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE TO 390 NM N OF ATTU WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 970 MB BY
EARLY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-300145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-300145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 12 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-300145-
BRISTOL BAY-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT LATE MORNING.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-300145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-300145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-300145-
UNALASKA BAY-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-300145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-300145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-300145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-300145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-300145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-300145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-300145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-300145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-300145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-300145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-300145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
345 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE
WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 45 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
457 AM AKST THU NOV 27 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS PROMOTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL IN THE VICINITY OF THE KNIK ARM. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FAVORED AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE
RIDGE. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS THE RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD AND ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED 983 MB
SURFACE LOW TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...SPREADING
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS VERY GOOD INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE MAINLAND WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...
ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE
GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN
TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND NORTHERLY FLOW
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE ALL PICKED UP ON DEVELOPMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND MOVING OVERHEAD OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE AND WILL LIKELY KEEP GAP
WINDS GOING A LITTLE LONGER FROM THE VALDEZ AREA TO THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA. HAVE EXTENDED THE STRONGER GAP WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND THEN DROPPED THEM OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT WAS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTH END OF KNIK ARM
(TO AROUND PALMER) AND ALONG EAGLE RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE TODAY.
THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK DRIFT BUT FOG SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
IN THOSE AREAS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE BERING SEA WHICH
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THE FOG TO DRIFT DOWN TO ANCHORAGE.
AS ALWAYS...THIS IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS CLOUDS BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A NEUTRALLY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY IN PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...WHICH MEANS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE WIDESPREAD FOG SEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS LIFTED IN LOW
STRATUS OVER THE INLAND BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AREAS AS
THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PROBLEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WITH
THE INCOMING WEAKENING FRONT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND MOVES WEST TO
EAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ON THE BETHEL AND KING SALMON SOUNDING LEND SOME REASONING
TO BELIEVE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED BRIEF POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN AND SNOW.

BY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WILL HELP TO INITIATE A STEADY
BAND OF SNOW...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY ZONES ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...
WHERE DECENT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

STRONG YET WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN NORTH ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TODAY BRINGING HIGH-END GALES IMPACTING AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE
TRANQUIL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG LOW MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE BERING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A PATTERN CHANGE FROM NEARLY STATIONARY TO PROGRESSIVE WILL BE
OCCURRING ON SAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH FROM JAPAN HELPS TO BUILD A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH A TROUGH ACROSS
MAINLAND AK THAT WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE THAT HAS
RESIDED OVER THE STATE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN A
SECOND TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND FURTHER
REINFORCE THE BERING RIDGE. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN CUT OFF
AND SPIN IN THE BERING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM
THE EASTERN BERING TO BRITISH COLUMBIA MON THROUGH WED...FINALLY
ALLOWING THE BERING CUT-OFF TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AKPEN BY MIDWEEK.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF ALL THIS ACTION WILL BE A FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE MAINLAND ON SAT...A RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEAK
AS A TROUGH...AND A MASSIVE LOW THAT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS ON SUN
AND PINWHEELS IN THE BERING UNTIL FINALLY EXITING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE INTO WED.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS SOLUTION AS ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND ON SAT...BRINGING SOME
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION BEFORE EXITING THE STATE. THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE EC AND GFS ARE ALSO PERSISTENTLY SHOWING A PINWHEELING
LOW IN THE BERING...WITH SOME QUESTION REMAINING ON THE EXACT
TRAJECTORY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS OF MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
LEANING ON A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND THE EC. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN AND AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS SAT
INTO TUE. ON MON AND TUE STRONG WINDS WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
LOW WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DS