Small Craft Advisory 686, NWS Anchorage, AK

495 
FZAK51 PAFC 101201
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110115-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND MOVE ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. A FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF THU
MORNING AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI.

$$

PKZ119-110115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
THE COAST...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-110115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-110115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-110115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-110115-
PORT VALDEZ-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-110115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-110115-
VALDEZ ARM-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-110115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-110115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-110115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-110115-
CHINIAK BAY-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-110115-
MARMOT BAY-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-110115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-110115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-110115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-110115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
401 AM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

699 
FZAK51 PAFC 102305
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111200-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1015 MB LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THU MORNING AND
THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI MORNING. A SECOND AND
STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

$$

PKZ119-111200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-111200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-111200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-111200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-111200-
PORT VALDEZ-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-111200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-111200-
VALDEZ ARM-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-111200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-111200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-111200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-111200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-111200-
CHINIAK BAY-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-111200-
MARMOT BAY-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-111200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-111200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-111200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-111200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
305 PM AKDT WED SEP 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER-LVL RIDGE OVER THE E COPPER RIVER BASIN/GULF OF AK IS
AMPLIFYING A BIT AS IT SLIDES EAST. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER-LOW
AROUND 250 MI W OF THE PRIBILOFS IS BECOMING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER
UPPER-LOW THAT PUSHED DOWN FROM E RUSSIA AND IS NOW NEARING ATTU.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PINWHEELING AROUND THE BROAD BERING LOW BRUSH THE
CHAIN AND SW MAINLAND WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. NESTLED IN
BETWEEN THE E GULF RIDGE AND BERING LOW/TROUGH A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPES THE WESTERN GULF OF AK WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING
ALONG IT'S AXIS BEGINNING TO DRAG IT TO THE NE. AN ASSOCIATED RAIN
SHIELD HAS ADVANCED TO THE KENAI PEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS A LITTLE BEHIND EARLIER MODEL PROJECTIONS. WAY OUT WEST...
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY FROM JAPAN INTO THE
N PACIFIC.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE SHORT TERM...THU AND FRI. FORECASTS THROUGH WED ARE
SIMILAR AND REASONABLE WITH A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKING NORTH IN THE
GULF TODAY AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL WED AND
ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION. PROBLEMS ARISE ON THU AND FRI AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN. THE ECMWF WHICH HAS HAD DRAMATIC FLIP
FLOPS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW HAD TWO RUNS WITH
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS (00Z-12Z). IT CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY SOLUTION
WHICH BRINGS A DEEP LOW CENTER INTO THE EASTERN BRISTOL BAY ON
FRI. THE NAM/GEM/GFS ALL HAVE SOLUTIONS WITH DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY
ON THIS FEATURE WITH WEAK LOW CENTERS FROM SOUTH OF THE AK PEN TO
OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE DEGREE OR LACK OF DIGGING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED 500 MB PATTERN AS IT DRAWS COLD OUT OF THE BERING SEA
AND SHARPENS THE NORTH PACIFIC TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SWLY NORTH PACIFIC JET WHICH ENHANCES
VERTICAL MOTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF FENGSHEN. THE
OTHER AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND AS SUCH HAVE
HAVE GENERALLY WEAKER SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A GFS
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION UNTIL WE GET ANOTHER MODEL RUN UNDER OUR
BELT. REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIO...MODELS ALL TAP INTO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST/KENAI PEN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA/GULF...
KODIAK...LIKELY WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN RAIN AS THE FRONTAL ZONES
MOVES NORTH AND EAST SOME THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN HITS
KODIAK THU AFTERNOON.

WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND THROUGH  THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WITH
FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED INITIALLY
TO THE COASTS AND SE EXPOSURES TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WED AS THE SE CROSS BARRIER FLOW WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT AND
FURTHER ENHANCES RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THU UNTIL THE INFLUX OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE THU NIGHT AND INTO FRI. THE GULF COAST AND
EASTERN KENAI SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH THIS
MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. RIVERS AND SMALL
STREAMS ACROSS THE GULF AND KENAI SHOULD EXPERIENCE RISES IN
WATER LEVELS INTO THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THERE
STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS STARTING SOMETIME LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE BERING LOW CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN BECOMING REINVIGORATED BY AN
APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING THE AREA CLOUDY AND WET
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FOCUS AND PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS
CENTERED AROUND HOW THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN WILL
INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING BERING LOW ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES (ESPECIALLY
FROM THE EC). THEY ARE FORTUNATELY STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z EC. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A CONSOLIDATED
LOW AROUND 980 MB WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING ON
SATURDAY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THIS MORNINGS WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WAS USED HEAVILY FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

IN GENERAL...THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FROM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF COAST. WHAT
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH WIND AROUND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAIN. THE 12Z GFS CAME IN WITH A
MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON SATURDAY...LEADING
TO MUCH STRONGER WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
SOLUTION HOWEVER IS A DISTINCT OUTLIER AND WAS THROWN OUT FOR NOW.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WIND
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN WITH THIS SETUP...HOWEVER EXACTLY
WHEN AND HOW STRONG REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

RMC/DEK SEP 14