Small Craft Advisory 656, NWS Anchorage, AK

589 
FZAK52 PAFC 011146
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-020115-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH
EARLY WED MORNING. A LOW NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE
A FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

$$

PKZ150-020115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-020115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-020115-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ165-020115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-020115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-020115-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ172-020115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ173-020115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-020115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-020115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ176-020115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ177-020115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-020115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ179-020115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 7 FT. 
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-020115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-020115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-020115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 AM AKDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTHWEST OF ALASKA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WHICH IS MOVING
TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THERE IS YET ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THERE IS A STRONGER
TROUGH OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST RUSSIA MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN ARE OF DISAGREEMENT AFTER
48 HOURS IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE ENTRAINMENT OF NORTH PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE ARCTIC JET STREAM OVER ALASKA. THE AMERICAN
MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PUSHING THE MOISTURE NORTH (ESPECIALLY THE NAM) WHILE THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN NH GEM PREFER TO KEEP THE MOISTURE SEPARATED AND A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEAK TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEAST RUSSIA...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHERE THIS
MOISTURE WILL GO. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF IT WILL GET TO KODIAK
ISLAND...BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT IS UNLIKELY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
AS THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL MAINLY MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SO FURTHER NORTH
AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS THE ALEUTIAN/PENINSULA TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE WESTERN BERING RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THIS RIDGE WILL BASICALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NORTHEAST RUSSIAN
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SEP 4TH - SEP 7TH)...
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND AND THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK BEFORE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA BY MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE STRATUS AND FOG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
THURSDAY A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE STORM PATH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA FOR REST OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

LUDWIG/PLD AUG 14