Small Craft Advisory 653, NWS Anchorage, AK

840 
FZAK51 PAFC 311150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010100-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 180 NM
EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY MON MORNING AND PUSHES INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING.


$$

PKZ119-010100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF THE COPPER
RIVER DELTA IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
WINDS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010100-
PORT VALDEZ-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010100-
VALDEZ ARM-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010100-
CHINIAK BAY-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010100-
MARMOT BAY-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
350 AM AKDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST COAST. STRONG FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW IS PUSHING SYSTEMS FROM SIBERIA TOWARD ALASKA. THE
FLOW IS WEAKER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH A FEW WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGHS. ONE OF THESE IS ALONG THE ALASKA/CANADA BORDER. ANOTHER
IS JUST ENTERING THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
A THIRD IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS...THEN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS...BUT THESE ARE ONLY MINOR AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS. OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND FROM
ABOUT CORDOVA EASTWARD...THE WEAK SYSTEM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET A LITTLE
EXTRA PUSH OF MOISTURE ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST ON
MONDAY. THE SECOND EXCEPTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM CURRENTLY
IN SIBERIA...BUT WITH THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ALASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY (AND MAYBE EVEN THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY) AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
LATER SUNDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL ALASKA ON
MONDAY WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE
AREA...SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE PANHANDLE AND
THE ONE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL BOTH PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE (LOW PRESSURE) SYSTEM SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BERING SEA...AND THEN WEAKEN AGAIN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SEP 3RD - SEP 6TH)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TO THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FROM MIDWEEK HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL GENERALLY BRING
MORE CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND AND THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL START OFF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE WESTERLY
WINDS BY MIDWEEK AND SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

LUDWIG/PLD AUG 14