Small Craft Advisory 623, NWS Anchorage, AK

557 
FZAK51 PAFC 180741 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED ZONE 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST UP
TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-182015-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-182015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-182015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-182015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-182015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-182015-
PORT VALDEZ-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-182015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-182015-
VALDEZ ARM-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-182015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-182015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-182015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-182015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-182015-
CHINIAK BAY-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-182015-
MARMOT BAY-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-182015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-182015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-182015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-182015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1141 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

550 
FZAK51 PAFC 181130
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190030-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-190030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT ALONG THE COAST. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-190030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-190030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-190030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT 
OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-190030-
PORT VALDEZ-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-190030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-190030-
VALDEZ ARM-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-190030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING 
W 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-190030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-190030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-190030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-190030-
CHINIAK BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-190030-
MARMOT BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-190030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-190030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-190030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-190030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
330 AM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

981 
FZAK51 PAFC 182346
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191315-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GULF ON
WED.

$$

PKZ119-191315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191315-
PORT VALDEZ-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191315-
VALDEZ ARM-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191315-
CHINIAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191315-
MARMOT BAY-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
346 PM AKDT MON AUG 18 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

081 
FZAK51 PAFC 191139
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200030-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
WED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-200030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200030-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200030-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200030-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200030-
MARMOT BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.SURFACE...
A WAVE AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT MOVED TO THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. MODERATE RAIN FELL ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH
LIGHTER INTENSITIES OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WEST OF THE
CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA RANGES. WEAK BARRIER JET CONDITIONS ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH GUSTS TO GALE STRENGTH HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED.

OUT WEST... THE COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND WITH MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. LOW CLOUDS WERE EVIDENT ALONG THE SW
COASTS AND THE AK PEN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA.

UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND MOVES NORTH AND EAST
MON AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. MINOR WAVES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW INTO TUE WITH A
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING TO THE SW COAST TUE AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPS
WILL WARM A LITTLE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...COOK INLET..AND THE NORTH
GULF BY TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -20C RANGE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE MAINLAND. 850 MB TEMPS GENERALLY COOL OVER THE SW MAINLAND
THROUGH TUE...THOUGH IT DOES RECOVER SOME OVER THE INTERIOR SW
TUE. IN THE EAST...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REBOUND ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL MON AND TUE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AFTERNOON
PACKAGES WILL MAKE UPDATES USING A GENERAL BLEND OF THE NAM AND
GEM WITH A LITTLE EC THROWN IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT AND LOW EXIT THE AREA. PRESSURE
RISES TO THE LEE OFF THIS FEATURE INCREASE GAP FLOWS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER...SHELIKOF STRAIT...AND COOK INLET
THROUGH TONIGHT. MON AND TUE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDY BREAKS...AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SEABREEZES...AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROUGH MON AND TUE INDICATE
STABILITY INDICES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND COLD AIR ALOFT POINT TO A FAIRLY ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND.
CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE MON AND TUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS TEMPS COOL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH INCREASED ON SHORE
FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE INTERIOR SW TUE AFTERNOON AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH NOSES IN FROM THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO ENCROACH ON THE DELTA/BRISTOL BAY ZONES THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
EXCEPT FOR SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED. THE
APPROACHING LOW FROM KAMCHATKA WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

OPERATIONAL MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD HAS
LEFT MUCH TO BE DESIRED WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT AND BELOW AVERAGE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WHAT CAN BE GLEANED AT THIS JUNCTURE IS THAT AN
UPPER-LVL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY THU LOOKS TO
DRIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AK PEN BY NEXT WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OFF OF THE ASIAN MAINLAND AND ROTATING UP FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC STILL LOOK TO INTERACT WITH THE LARGE
FEATURE AND HELP FORM SOME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT TRACK
INTO THE GULF OR TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE PARENT UPPER-LOW DUE OF THE NUMEROUS LOBES OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH IT MAKE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE SURFACE
LOWS (AND THUS THEIR ASSOCIATED WEATHER) VERY DIFFICULT TO
PROG...AND THIS IS BEING REFLECTED IN THE POOR MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL LARGELY BE WEAK OVER THE AOR EARLY IN
THE WEEK DOES TREND STRONGER WITH TIME AS THE PARENT UPPER-LOW
NEARS THE SW MAINLAND. AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRENDS
TO LOW FRI NIGHT AND BEYOND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

RMC/JAM AUG 14