Small Craft Advisory 618, NWS Anchorage, AK

203 
FZAK52 PAFC 161155 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

CORRECTED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170115-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 987 MB LOW 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF NELSON LAGOON WEAKENS TO 993 MB NEAR TOGIAK AND THEN
BECOMES A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AK THAT
DISSIPATES SUN MORNING. A 1005 MB LOW FORMS SAT NIGHT 175 NM NORTH
OF ATTU THAT WEAKENS TO 1007 MB SUN NIGHT NEAR 220 NM NORTHEAST OF
ATTU.

$$

PKZ150-170115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

CORRECTED 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170115-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND TO 15
KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170115-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. DENSE FOG.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 AM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. DENSE FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

770 
FZAK52 PAFC 162253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171130-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR CAPE CONSTANTINE WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND
SUN EVENING. A 1005 MB LOW 225 NM WEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO ABOUT
145 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES MON. ANOTHER
1005 MB LOW MOVES EAST TO AROUND 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171130-
BRISTOL BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS
2 FT IN THE EVENING BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ165-171130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014


.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171130-
UNALASKA BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
253 PM AKDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT WONT END COMPLETELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST COPPER RIVER BASIN, AND, WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY. NEXT LOW CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD
MORE RAIN IN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THE SURFACE TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE STACKED CENTRAL ALEUTIAN UPPER AND
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER SOUTHWEST AK THROUGH SUN. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TODAY...ENTER
THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT...AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST SAT
MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF
AND SLOWS THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND PREVENTS IT
FROM MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST UNTIL LATER ON SUN.

LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE MAINLAND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE BERING SUN INTO MON. THE GFS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HAS
PRETTY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND GREATER DETAIL THAN THE
EC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

RAIN AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME BRIEF BREAKS THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN BEFORE TAPERING OFF MON. STRONG WINDS THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN AND GALES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ACCOMPANY
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. THE
ARRIVAL OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
RETURN PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT...WITH
STRONG WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER ON SAT...THE SLOW DECAY OF THE LOW OVER SW AK WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON SUN AND
BEGINS TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE INTO MON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TODAY. BY SAT MORNING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REDUCED TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A JET STREAM
THAT IS LARGELY SOUTH OF THE AOR WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
WEATHER FEATURES OVERALL. FLAT/ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOR A TIME WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SUNNY BREAKS...BUT ALSO TOUGH TO PINPOINT PERIODS OF RAIN AS
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW. OUT
WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TO DIG A BIT
SOUTHWARDS AND CUT OFF MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW THE
INITIALLY FLAT JET STREAM TO NOSE NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TOWARDS THE GULF OR SW MAINLAND.
TO WHAT DEGREE IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ESPECIALLY BULLISH IN BRINGING A BROAD SW
FETCH OF MOISTURE THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE QPF/PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED
SUBSTANTIALLY BY IT'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THIS JUNCTURE. THAT
SAID...IT IS A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION GIVEN WE ARE NOW MOVING INTO
THE RAINIER SEASON. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD... BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CLOSE TO
A HEAVY ENSEMBLE BLEND PER WPC GUIDANCE. THIS KEEPS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND MOSTLY DRY SAVE FOR PASSING SHOWERS TUE AND WED WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WITH TEMPERED WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE BERING SEA AND CHAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER- LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
OUT WEST IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY...121
MARINE...GALE...119 120 125 129 130 131 132 139 150 160 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

PERCY/JAM