Small Craft Advisory 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT WED AUG 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A WEAK "COMPLEX" UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND
THE BERING SEA. THERE IS A LARGE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
BERING SEA. THE LEADING FRONT WITH THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM THE
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL PATTERN
AND LOCATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE DIFFERENCES
COME IN WITH RESPECT TO THE ORIENTATION/TIMING OF VARIOUS SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES. THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX WILL WEAKEN AND
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE BERING LOW BEARS EASTWARD. THE LEADING
FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW WILL PUSH INTO KODIAK EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING THEN UP TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BRING A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE TO COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE IN THE USUAL AREAS...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN GULF
MARINE AREAS AND TURNAGAIN ARM. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LESS RAIN
WITH AS THE FLOW IN THEM MID AND UPPER LEVELS BECOMES SOUTHERLY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY. THE FRONT WILL BASICALLY STALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST...CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SETTLING INTO THE GULF ON SATURDAY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOME SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING LOW WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF LOW WILL REACH THE WEST COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND ALREADY
BE PUSHING WELL INLAND BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF
WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. BUT WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE AREA...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE UPPER LOW TRANSITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING. A BIT OF A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT NOT QUITE
HIGH PRESSURE...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUN AUG 10TH - WED AUG 13TH)...

AN ACTIVE WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ON SUNDAY...WITH A LARGE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS INCREASING INLAND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC JET SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
BERING...WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...NO DISTINCT DRY OR WARM PERIODS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 155 165 170 172 173 174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG AUG 14