Small Craft Advisory 554, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 21, 2014, 2:59 PM AKDT (22:59 UTC)

Expired

Jul 22, 2014, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

759 
FZAK52 PAFC 212259
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221130-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A 1015 MB LOW NEAR ATKA WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.


$$

PKZ150-221130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221130-
BRISTOL BAY-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE 
WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221130-
UNALASKA BAY-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-221130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
259 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 21, 1:46 PM AKDT, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY PROMINENT RIDGE IS THE BIGGEST FEATURE THAT IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS LINED UP WITH THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SLOWLY BE SLIDING EAST.
LOW LEVEL FOG AND STRATUS IS MOVING WITH THE RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS A
THIN...BUT WIDESPREAD AREA OF CIRRUS THAT COVERS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE STATE...FROM THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND WEST. A FAIRLY
WOUND UP AND STACKED LOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE
TODAY...AND IS THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA. SOUTH OF
ADAK IS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR AREA. THIS LOW IS BRINGING
RAIN AND CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE MOVING EAST AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS SLIDING ACROSS THE BERING
STRAIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARE IN LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BY THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. IT IS AROUND
THAT TIME THAT THE NAM/GFS/GEM KEEP THE UPPER LOW ABOUT 200 NM
SOUTH OF SEWARD...WHILE THE EURO PULLS IT FARTHER NORTH AND INTO
COPPER RIVER DELTA (THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE EURO WAS CLOSE TO THE
NAM/GFS)...OUTSIDE OF THAT MINOR DIFFERENCE...TIMING OF THE
FEATURES STILL SEEMS CONSISTENT. OVERALL THE GEM AND GFS WERE
FAVORED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
EXTENSIVE THIN CIRRUS  CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TODAY...BEST DENOTED
BY THE MILKY WHITE COLOR IN THE SKY. GIVEN THE RIGHT ANGLE...YOU
COULD ALMOST SEE A SLIGHT REDDISH HUE THAT MEANS THAT THERE IS
SMOKE PARTICULATE THAT IS COMBINED IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
REGARDLESS...PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH.
BY THAT TIME THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BE CROSSING KODIAK AND HEADING
FOR SOUTHERN PWS. ALONG WITH THIS LOW WILL BE THE INCREASE TO MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...AND STRATUS MOVING IN ALONG
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
REFLECTION...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT LOWER LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT TO SEE
SPRINKLES AND EVENTUALLY WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE
ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE HOLE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW SLIDES SOUTH
OF PWS...RAIN ALONG THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE COAST WILL BE
EXPECTED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A DOUBLE WHAMMY WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
FIRST IS FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING IN CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED RAINS. AREAS TO THE
WEST...SUCH AS BETHEL...WILL ALSO BE SEEING RAIN AND CLOUDS BUT
THIS WILL BE DUE TO A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND FRONT THAT IS
DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE LOWER Y-K DELTA LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PROFILE. NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD TS ACTIVITY...BUT PERHAPS A FEW STRIKES HERE OR
THERE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ALEUTIAN LOW WILL JOIN AND
EVOLVE TOGETHER AS THEY CROSS THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS AND IMPACT
AREAS TO THE EAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
TOMORROW KEEPING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA. AS THE ALEUTIAN
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE BERING...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TAKE
OVER THE BERING WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS COME MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THAT TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE USUAL RIDGE STRATUS DECK WILL MOVE BACK IN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) WILL
GENERALLY CONSIST OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MAINLAND. A
FEW SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA...BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE DIRECTION
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND THE FACT THAT THE MAIN LOWS WILL BE TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE SHOWERY AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH.

THE WPC (WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER) FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY A
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE 12Z GFS DETERMINISTIC
MODEL (LESS INFLUENCE AS TIME INCREASES UNTIL BY DAY 8 IT IS NOT
USED AT ALL)...AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS IS
WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
STRONGLY LEANS TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SHEA / LUDWIG JUL 14

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2014Every small craft advisory in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.