Small Craft Advisory 552, NWS Anchorage, AK

909 
FZAK51 PAFC 210732 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-212015-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+COOK
INLET...A 1005 MB LOW 50 NM S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
NEAR HAIDA GWAII AT 1008 MB BY MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF ON MON AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-212015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ120-212015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-212015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-212015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-212015-
PORT VALDEZ-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE TO 15 KT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-212015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 20 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-212015-
VALDEZ ARM-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT.

$$

PKZ129-212015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT
NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-212015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
40 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-212015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-212015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-212015-
CHINIAK BAY-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-212015-
MARMOT BAY-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-212015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-212015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-212015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-212015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1132 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

450 
FZAK51 PAFC 211153
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220045-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1006 MB LOW 190 NM WEST OF KETCHIKAN WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE GULF THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-220045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...NORTH WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220045-
PORT VALDEZ-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...NORTHEAST WIND 15 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220045-
VALDEZ ARM-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...NORTH WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220045-
CHINIAK BAY-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220045-
MARMOT BAY-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
353 AM AKDT MON JUL 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 PM AKDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE TO ANALYZE THIS AFTERNOON IS A LARGE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CARVING ITS WAY ACROSS ALASKA THESE PAST FEW
DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN FORMING AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH AND CAN BE SEEN QUITE WELL ON AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW FORMED ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. THIS IS
MOST APPARENT ON PAIH 0.5 DEGREE VOLUME SCAN. ACROSS BRISTOL BAY
AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS A TRANSIENT RIDGE. SOUTHWEST OF THE
THE ALEUTIANS IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST. ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BERING SEA RIDGE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CLIMBING UP THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
RIDGE...CROSSING THE WESTERN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL IN ALL...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
THERE ARE ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THE LOW
DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM PWS. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CHAIN AND AKPEN TODAY.
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF TUESDAY WITH
THE ALEUTIAN LOW AND HOW IT WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
MAINLAND. THE LATEST GEM-REG / ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING TO SHOW ANY CONSISTENCY AND THAT WAS LARGELY
TOSSED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT TERM FORECASTS WERE TIED
CLOSER TO THE GEM FOR BOTH DOMAINS AND MID RANGE WAS A MIX OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WAINED FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PWS AS WELL AS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS
COMING TO A CLOSE THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN PWS LOOKS LIKE IT IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED...AND MAY BE RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...AND WILL
KEEP A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF PWS...CLOUDS WILL DO THE SAME AND
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST AND A PLEASANT START TO THE WORK WEEK WILL
TAKE PLACE. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP FROM ABOUT 1.5 DEG C TO
7-8 ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA. ASSUMING MOST OF THAT WARMTH IS
REALIZED TOMORROW...WE CAN VERY EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO
MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE STARTING LATE TOMORROW...AND INTERACT WITH A LOW
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAINS TODAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR POPS TO SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE TUESDAY
EVENING/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
PROGGED TO BE DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AND EARLY INTO TUESDAY. WITH
FAIRLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...FOG WILL
SPILL OVER FROM THE SEA AND ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SOME INLAND AREAS
TONIGHT. THE ALEUTIAN LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL WORK
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST TO THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE WITH THE TYPICAL FOG AND STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE PLUME TO THE
SOUTH ARE HELPING TO PUSH AND ENHANCEMENT NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY NORTH BETWEEN ATKA AND DUTCH. GIVEN THE LACK OF
OBSERVATIONS/GROUND TRUTH...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE IS SOME RAIN
COMING OUT OF THIS FEATURE. ALL GUIDANCE TAKES THIS WAVE AND
WEAKENS IT AS IT WORKS NORTH THROUGH THE PRIBS...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE -DZ THAT AS BEEN EVER PRESENT. THE LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA
WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING RAIN/CLOUD CHANCES EAST AND TOWARDS THE AKPEN BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WEDNESDAY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS A
LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY YESTERDAY HOW STRONG THIS RIDGE WILL BE
AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MOVE BY NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS NOW
INCREASING THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO DISLODGE
THE PERSISTENT LOW IN THE GULF AND BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN SOUTHCENTRAL THIS PATTERN
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LESS SEEN
EACH DAY UNTIL THERE ARE NOT TOO MANY AROUND BY SATURDAY. THE ONE
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TO WATCH TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND CONCERNING THIS
RIDGE IS THAT THERE IS STILL SOME COLD UPPER LEVEL LOWS LURKING
AROUND IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN. SHOULD ONE OR MORE OF THESE COLD LOWS
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THEY COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL...AND THEN RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT AGAIN. IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THE SHOWERS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER
AFTER THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE
BERING SEA UNDER THIS RIDGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

SHEA/EZ JUL 14