Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

119 
FZAK52 PAFC 021249
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 175 NM NORTH OF ATKA WEAKENS TO 991 MB THU EVENING OVER
NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THEN CONTINUES INLAND. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A
COMPLEX LOW SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA CROSSES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH FRI AND THEN DISSIPATES. A 985 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH
OF CHIGNIK FRI AFTERNOON INTENSIFIES TO 978 MB FRI NIGHT 200 NM SOUTH
OF FALSE PASS.

$$

PKZ150-030300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 35 KT W OF COLD BAY. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF PORT MOLLER...S WIND 40 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND
30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-030300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-030300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-030300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-030300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-030300-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-030300-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-030300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ185-030300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU JAN 2 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST WED JAN 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET COMING OUT OF ASIA CONTINUES TO FLING
RAPID-FIRE NUMEROUS ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND INTO THE ALASKAN DOMAIN. A RAPIDLY DECAYING VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW...THE MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER FROM YESTERDAY...IS NEAR
SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AROUND UPPER
COOK INLET FROM KENAI TO THE MAT-SU WHERE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS
ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. OUT
WEST...ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED INTO A 972 MB
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING RAIN AND STORM-FORCE WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MAJOR MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE
BIG-PICTURE EVOLUTION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAM IS A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OTHER
MODELS AS THE CURRENT LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TRACKS TO NEAR
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TOMORROW MORNING...THEREFORE THE GFS/ECMWF IS
GIVEN A SLIGHT PREFERENCE AND WILL BE UTILIZED IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE ATMOSPHERIC LEFTOVERS OF THE BIG STORM FROM
YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOMETIME THIS EVENING THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS VERY NEAR ANCHORAGE...AT WHICH TIME DOWNSLOPING WILL END AND
MOST PLACES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIP
AMOUNTS IN VALDEZ AND CORDOVA TO INCREASE WHILE THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM AREA WILL SEE INTENSITY DECREASE TO MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. AT
THE SAME TIME...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST...CHANGING RAIN BACK TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE THE REGION A GLANCING BLOW
FROM THE NORTH WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A RELATIVELY MINOR
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING...LINGERING LONGEST ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES AS LIGHT WEST WINDS INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN. AFTER A VERY
BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A MINOR ACCUMULATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA (CLOSEST TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER). SNOW
MAY MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY ALL-SNOW
INLAND. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS WEAKENING STORM WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NORMAL PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...THUS WILL BUMP UP WINDS MAINLY FOR THE COASTLINE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELTA.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE STORM NEAR ADAK HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY DECREASE AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR AND THE PRIBILOFS OVERNIGHT AS A
FLEETING PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE BACK IN TO THE FAR WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A NEW LOW FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT NEAR SHEMYA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AS RAIN REMAINS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GENERAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
AMPLIFIED BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/RIDGING DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ALCAN BORDER. THIS WEEK KEEP THE MOST UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE BERING SEA...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE TAME
WEATHER KEEPS CONDITIONS WARMER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD JAN 14