Small Craft Advisory 444, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
555 AM AKDT WED JUN 4 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE WESTERN MAINLAND
HAS BROUGHT CONTINUED CLEARING SKIES OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THIS MORNING. UNDER THE RIDGE IS WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
BERING SEA AND AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS
CONTINUING MOVE EAST...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AKPENN. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC LOW CENTERED OFF OF THE
NORTHWEST COAST IS BEGINNING TO PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
HANDLING THE RETROGRADING BERING RIDGE AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THEY CONTINUE TO HAVE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH HOW QUICKLY TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO KODIAK LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LATER ON IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH EXACTLY HOW THE DESCENDING ARCTIC TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW FRI/SAT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH KEEPING A STRONGER ALEUTIAN LOW
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE EC/NAM/GEM CAMP ON THE OTHER WEAKENS THIS
LOW AND STRETCHES IT INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF...AND WAS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
IS CURRENTLY PRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL HELP FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE LIONS SHARE OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...LEADING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND ALONG
THE COPPER RIVER DEVELOPS. COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN STARTING
THIS EVENING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST BY FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS FROM THE BERING
SEA CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST WILL TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. THE ARCTIC TROUGH THAT WILL DIP TOWARDS THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWER INITIATION ON
THURSDAY. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO BRISTOL BAY ON FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE INTO BERING SEA THIS
WEEKEND...CAUSING MUCH OF THE WEST MAINLAND TO FALL UNDER A COOL
AND WET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AKPENN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ALEUTIAN
LOW SLOWLY PASSES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AT THE
ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY AS THE THE BERING RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA AS
IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD...THOUGH AREAS OF STRATUS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. THE DESCENDING ARCTIC TROUGH WILL THEN
KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND AKPENN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST STARTING LATE THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THE ARCTIC TROUGH SETS
UP AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN BERING ON
SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WILL FALL UNDER A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE WEST
MAINLAND AND AREAS OF THE GULF COAST. INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH LIKELY SEE MORE BREAKS IN RAINFALL AS A SERIES
OF WEAK LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE GULF BY THE EARLY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING LATE THIS WEEKEND. IT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOWEVER HOW
LONG THIS PATTERN WILL LAST HOWEVER...AS THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 141.

&&

DEK JUN 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1137 AM AKDT WED JUN 4 2014

AKZ181-050215-
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
1137 AM AKDT WED JUN 4 2014

...CONTINUED ERUPTION OF PAVLOF VOLCANO...

WEATHER OBSERVERS AND PILOTS IN THE COLD BAY AREA ARE REPORTING
THAT A LOW LEVEL STEAM AND ASH PLUME CONTINUES TO BE VISIBLE FROM
PAVLOF VOLCANO. THE PLUME OF ASH AND STEAM HAS RECENTLY BEEN
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 20000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. ASH FROM THE PLUME
IS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE WEST. VERY LIGHT ASHFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN AREAS TO THE WEST OF PAVLOF VOLCANO
AND IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE VOLCANO. ASHFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN COMMUNITIES
TO THE WEST OF THE VOLCANO.

CASSELL