Small Craft Advisory 435, NWS Anchorage, AK

568 
FZAK51 PAFC 011650 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

UPDATED ZONES 119 125 130 131 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020315-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA 
THROUGH MON. A 1019 MB LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL DRIFT EAST 
AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-020315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. ALONG THE COAST...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020315-
PORT VALDEZ-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020315-
VALDEZ ARM-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020315-
CHINIAK BAY-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020315-
MARMOT BAY-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS  FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-020315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
813 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

064 
FZAK51 PAFC 011644
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020515-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH MON. A 1019 MB LOW NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WILL DRIFT
EAST AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST BY MON
MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-020515-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020515-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020515-
RESURRECTION BAY-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020515-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020515-
PORT VALDEZ-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020515-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020515-
VALDEZ ARM-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020515-
PASSAGE CANAL-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020515-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020515-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020515-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020515-
CHINIAK BAY-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020515-
MARMOT BAY-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020515-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020515-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020515-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS  FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-020515-
KACHEMAK BAY-
844 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
529 AM AKDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER LOW COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER COOK INLET. TO THE EAST OF THESE
SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD RAIN STRETCHES FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS RAIN WILL BECOMING REINVIGORATED LATER
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...KEEPING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
UNDER A RISK OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTAINS IS HELPING TO KEEP THE AREA
CLOUDY...BUT OTHERWISE VOID OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE ALL INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...AND WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY.
THIS MODEL AGREEMENT THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY MORNING
WITH SPEED DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT WEAKENS TO THE
EAST. THE GFS/EC ARE MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST...WHILE THE NAM
IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A FASTER AND DEEPER LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE MORNING PACKAGE USED A BLEND
BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT GEM
REGIONAL LOCATION. OUT WEST...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH
MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE BERING AND A WESTERN
ALEUTIAN LOW APPROACHES. THIS HOWEVER ALSO STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
CORE LOW APPROACHING COOK INLET. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO MATANUSKA VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. AS IS INDICATED WITH A COOL 52 DEGREE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ON THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VERY LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. THE INLAND KENAI PENINSULA WILL BE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT DURING ITS PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN COMPARISON DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALOFT...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A RISK OF SMALL HAIL MIXING IN
WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER THROUGH SLOWLY
DISSIPATES OVERHEAD...AND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT MONDAY MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THE
DEPARTING COLD CORE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL THEN WARM BACK TO
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
TO PRIBILOFS WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THIS AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH STRATUS AND LIGHT WINDS UNTIL THE NEXT LOW
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE BERING RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND STARTING ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP MAJOR
SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND FOR AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT UNDERCUTS THE BERING
RIDGE AND MOVES TOWARDS THE AKPENN ON FRIDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THIS
LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH CONTINUE TO BRING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE MAINLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

DEK JUN 14