Small Craft Advisory 414, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH A LEADING
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A WEAK "RIDGE TOPPER"
SHORT WAVE LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA...BRINGING CLOUDS
AND A FEW (INLAND) SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE A FEW
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF UPPER FEATURES BEYOND
ABOUT 60 HOURS...BUT THESE ARE FAIRLY MINOR. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN ALASKA ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL "SHARPEN UP" AND STRENGTHEN A BIT. THE LEADING FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO KODIAK LATE MONDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW...BY THIS TIME CENTERED
JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...SWINGS NORTH. RAIN WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THIS FRONT AS THE HIGH RETREATS EAST INTO
CANADA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...AND A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER "RIPPLES" WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS.

FOR WINDS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM. ALSO...WINDS IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AS THEY WILL STILL BE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LEADING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALEUTIAN/BERING LOW PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&

LUDWIG MAY 14