Small Craft Advisory 409, NWS Anchorage, AK

388 
FZAK51 PAFC 241129
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250000-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER COOK INLET AND
THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ119-250000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-250000-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-250000-
RESURRECTION BAY-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-250000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-250000-
PORT VALDEZ-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-250000-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-250000-
VALDEZ ARM-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-250000-
PASSAGE CANAL-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.

$$

PKZ130-250000-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-250000-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-250000-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-250000-
CHINIAK BAY-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-250000-
MARMOT BAY-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-250000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. NW GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR SOUTH END 
OF STRAIT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-250000-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-250000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SMOKE.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF SMOKE.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-250000-
KACHEMAK BAY-
329 AM AKDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 PM AKDT FRI MAY 23 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF AS WELL AS COOK INLET.
A BROAD AND DENSE AREA OF SMOKE FROM FIRES ON THE WESTERN KENAI
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW KENAI PEN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUT WEST...
STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
BERING SEA BROUGHT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA
TO AS FAR EAST AS THE DELTA COAST. NORTHERLY FLOW JUST TO THE
EAST CONTINUED FAIR SKIES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SOUTH TO OVER
MUCH OF BRISTOL BAY. A THIN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS
EVIDENT OVER THE BERING SEA SIDE OF THE AK PEN AS FAR EAST AS PORT
HEIDEN.

A SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA MOVES RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE BERING SEA RIDGE WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS TO THE GULF BY MON AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE EAST AS
THE LONG WAVE BROADENS OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. OUT WEST...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUN AND MON AS THE BERING SEA RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL APPEAR TO THE THE BEST CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SAT AND
CONTINUE INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND PRESSURES FALL OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL TROUGH. GAP FLOWS AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS COOK INLET WILL
SPREAD SMOKE FROM FIRES OVER THE WESTERN KENAI NORTH AND IMPACT
THE MATANUSKA/SUSITNA VALLEYS AND ANCHORAGE BOWL. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG BEING ADVECTED INLAND.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS ALEUTIANS WILL
START TO ENCROACH ON SW ALASKA AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN TO THE COAST MON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG
UNDER THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE BROADENING TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BRING MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND NEXT WEEK AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF RAIN.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...121 145.

RMC MAY 14