Small Craft Advisory 314, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
132 PM AKDT SUN APR 13 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND AN UPPER HIGH JUST
TO THE EAST OF ALASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. WITHIN THIS FLOW A FRONT IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ANOTHER FRONT
STRETCHES FROM THE PRIBILOFS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ALONG
THIS SECOND FRONT A SHORT-WAVE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
IS "PINCHING OFF" FROM THE MAIN BERING LOW AS IT HEADS EAST TOWARD
THE GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY AND NOT
REALLY ADDING TO FORECAST DIFFICULTIES THROUGH 84 HOURS. EVEN THE
NAM DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
EXPANDING LOW IN THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
PRACTICAL EFFECT ON THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA
WILL DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER INLAND AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW
TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD INLAND ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRIBILOF/PENINSULA FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATER
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BREAK APART ON MONDAY WITHOUT GETTING
INLAND. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE FORMER SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PUSHING
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL PROTECT MOST OF THE AREA FROM
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
REACH THE COAST LATER TUESDAY AND THEN BREAK APART. ON WEDNESDAY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE BERING LOW EXPANDS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 170 172 173 174 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG APR 14