Small Craft Advisory 309, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT SAT APR 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. AN ELONGATED TROUGH
STRETCHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. TWO FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. ONE IS DRAPED
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THE
OTHER IS PARALLEL TO THE FIRST ONE BUT FURTHER WEST AND
NORTH...NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND RETREATING EASTWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH 84 HOURS (TUESDAY AFTERNOON). THE NAM IS THE
EXCEPTION...QUICKLY BECOMING AN OUTLIER (BEFORE 24 HOURS INTO THE
FORECAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE KODIAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE ELONGATED
TROUGH BEHIND IT...AND NEARLY CATCHING UP TO THE FRONT. THE FRONT
AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUOUSLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
INLAND AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
PLENTY OF MOUNTAIN BLOCKING. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF ELONGATED TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CROSS ANCHORAGE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

ON MONDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
LAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FURTHER WEST FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE AREA SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 138 155 165 172 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG APR 14