Small Craft Advisory 308, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT FRI APR 11 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOST OF THE
MAJOR FEATURES. THERE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
FRONTS/SURFACE LOWS TO RAISE THE UNCERTAINTY A BIT. THEREFORE THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD SENDING A
SERIES OF FRONTS TOWARD SOUTHERN ALASKA. NONE OF THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS LOOKS PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT A PATTERN CHANGE TO THAT OF
MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IS IN STORE.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TOWARD THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE. TURNAGAIN WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND FALL APART AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
ALONG THE GULF COAST/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS. INLAND AREAS
WILL SEE GENERALLY ONLY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF BREAK IS
IN STORE ON MONDAY AS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS A WEATHER FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. A BRIEF BREAK IS
THEN IN STORE ON MONDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 138 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG APR 14