Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

279 
FZAK52 PAFC 100005
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 120 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL DISSIPATES FRIDAY. A 970 MB
LOW 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS EVENING MOVES 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT GEORGE AT 964 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-101500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ173-101500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ174-101500-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-101500-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ177-101500-
ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BERING SIDE...SE WIND 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT NORTHWEST 30 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS
29 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ178-101500-
KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ181-101500-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ185-101500-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU JAN 9 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH
OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE SIBERIAN SEA...AND AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH CENTERED OVER 170W IS TRACKING EASTWARD...WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY TRANSLATING TOWARD THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF
ALASKA. OVER THE BERING SEA...A BROAD AND WEAKENING AREA OF STACKED
LOW PRESSURE EXISTS...WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKING OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE REMNANTS OF A
SHEARED AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST INTO
CANADA. A NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALASKA...REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS ALREADY
IN PLACE.

WITH TIME...THE ENTIRE WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST...WITH NUMEROUS WEAK WAVE FEATURES TRACKING OVER THE AREA. THE
MAIN PACIFIC STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...WITH COLD
AIR FROM THE NORTH SLOWLY FILTERING IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...AND LESS SO WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC WAVE
DISTURBANCES BREAKING OFF THE JET. WITH THAT SAID...THEY ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ERROR SPREAD GROWS RAPIDLY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN THE FAVORED
GUIDANCE.

THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUPERB CONSISTENCY
LATE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE ECMWF...AND
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OVER
ALASKA (SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION).

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MAT-SU VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER
BASIN. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH OCCASIONAL
MIXING OF RAIN AROUND CORDOVA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO COASTAL
AREAS FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY COOLING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS.

SOUTHWEST...
WAVES OF MOISTURE WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA GRADUALLY DRIES OUT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. A
STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRIDAY...WITH A
FRONT TRACKING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW. STRONGER MAX GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO
SATURDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS BECOMING ALMOST A CERTAINTY BY THE
MIDDLE AND LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A POWERFUL 220 KNOT EAST
ASIAN JET STREAM MEANDERS EAST...SETTING UP A +PNA PATTERN OVER
ALASKA AND NORTH AMERICA. RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE ALREADY
PERSISTENT NPAC RIDGE WILL ENSUE...WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FORMING
ALONG THE LEFT EXIT OF THIS POWERFUL JET. DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG
THE COAST...A VIGOROUS CHINOOK TRACKING DEEP INTO THE INTERIOR...AND
EXTENSIVE AND WIDESPREAD STORMINESS ACROSS THE GULF AND BERING SEA.
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MYRIAD OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDING
RAIN AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF VARIOUS LOWS. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF WEATHER IS INCREASING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 173-177 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AHSENMACHER/CLAY JAN 14