Small Craft Advisory 285, NWS Anchorage, AK

310 
FZAK51 PAFC 071759 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

UPDATED 129 130 131

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA COAST UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK
INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080315-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 60 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT AT 983 MB MON AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INLAND MON EVENING. A
987 MB LOW WILL FORM 40 NM EAST OF SEWARD TUE MORNING WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. A 996 MB LOW 170
NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WED MORNING WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT AT 995 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-080315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080315-
PORT VALDEZ-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080315-
VALDEZ ARM-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080315-
CHINIAK BAY-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080315-
MARMOT BAY-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
959 AM AKDT MON APR 7 2014

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT SUN APR 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
AND EXTENDS WELL SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NEARLY ALL THE WAY TO
HAWAII. AN ANCHORING UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WITH MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES RIDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF ON A STRONG 140 KT JET. ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES HAS BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
TODAY...AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
ANOTHER WAVE FURTHER NORTH HELPED DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW
OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING. OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE DELTA REGION WHERE
SKIES HAVE NOW LARGELY CLEARED. HOWEVER LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE (BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKO VALLEY) REMAIN ON THE UNSTABLE
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WAY OUT WEST...COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SNOW
SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING...WHILE A FRONT FURTHER
WEST IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A FEW DAYS THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENT DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTHWEST A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE KENAI PENINSULA FROM THE GULF ON MONDAY
MORNING WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IT BACK TO THE
EAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST DRAMATIC (FARTHEST
NORTHWEST) WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL OPT TO STICK WITH THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT...WITH THE USEFUL SUPPORT
OF THE HI-RES NAM...IN KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE A BIT FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFY THIS WOULD
LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT-SU BY 3-6 HOURS AND PUSH THE START TIME BACK TO LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE REGION MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SHOWERS UNTIL THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR TOMORROW...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...WHILE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. IF THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS WERE GOING TO
FOCUS ON THE SAME LOCATIONS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER...BUT WITH THINGS SPREAD OUT LIKE THIS IT
SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD AREA WILL SEE OVERALL LIGHTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE UP NEAR
HATCHER PASS AND IN THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
AS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RESULTING PROLONGED
SNOWFALL EVENT MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE TROUGH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL PASS FAIRLY BENIGNLY THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT BEING
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOCATIONS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE CURRENTLY SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CLEARER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WEATHER FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
NEAR ADAK WILL STALL TONIGHT AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS A SECOND AND
STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS TO THE EAST...AND
REACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH RAIN AND GALE-FORCE WINDS BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND ACROSS THE MAINLAND
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CLOUDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE BERING SEA SPREADING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE ACTIVE AND WINDY PATTERN POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 131. 173 175 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

AMD APR 14