Small Craft Advisory 244, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
131 PM AKDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A REX BLOCK OVER ALASKA WITH THE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
POINT HOPE AND A LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY. THERE IS SOME
RESIDUAL "TROUGHINESS" OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BETWEEN THE
BRISTOL BAY LOW AND A LOW MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS
(MONDAY AFTERNOON). THIS...COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY STABLE BLOCKING
PATTERN...ALLOWS THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE
TOWARD THE WEST ALLOWING THE HIGH TO "FLOP OVER" INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH
MONDAY...PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY STORMS.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE BRISTOL BAY MOVES WEST THE BLOCKING
HIGH WILL ALSO NUDGE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SOME PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG BRISTOL BAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXITING LOW.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL SEND ITS OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND BE NEAR THE
PRIBILOFS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN "ABSORB" THE
FORMER BRISTOL BAY LOW ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 138 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 139 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

LUDWIG MAR 14