Small Craft Advisory 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

419 
FZAK51 PAFC 182318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY THU AND DISSIPATE. A WEAKENING PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO AROUND
250 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 1009 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA THROUGH
MIDDAY. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-191500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-191500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-191500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 


$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY BY MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 15 KT. S OF DANGEROUS
CAPE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-191500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ137-191500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-191500-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FT. 
  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT MON MAR 17 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN SYSTEM TODAY IS A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA HEADING
NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WITH A SECONDARY LOW JUST NORTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT IS SCOOTING ALONG TO THE EAST INTO THE
NORTHER GULF OF ALASKA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW MAIN LOW
SOUTH TO THE SECONDARY LOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE BERING SEA COAST RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A WEAKER LOW IS NOW
NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS AND WILL DRIFT EAST DISSIPATING TO A TROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS THE ONSHORE PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THAT IS PRODUCING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE PARENT LOW IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF SHEMYA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
JUST WEST OF SHEMYA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONTAL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AND HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND
WED. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE CHAIN TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION ON THE LIQUID SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME MAY INITIALLY FALL AS
SNOW. THE WARMER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND AT THIS TIME WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON ANY HIGH WIND
WARNINGS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVERALL IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THE TYPICAL ISSUES WITH THE ONSET AND
ENDING OF SNOW IN THE SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS MORE CHALLENGING. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT MAJOR STORM TO
IMPACT THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE GFS IS A TAD
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE LOW 960 MB RANGE.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SHIFTING TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A STRONG
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SOME STRONGER WIND THROUGH THE CHUGACH MOUNTAIN
PASSES IN PARTICULAR THOMPSON PASS. THIS COUPLED WITH ABOUT ONE FOOT
OF TRANSPORTABLE SNOW WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW TONIGHT AND TUE.

THE MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA OVERNIGHT IT WILL RE
INVIGORATE THE SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS CROSS THE
REGION. AS THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION TUE INTO WED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE
LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AFFECT THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THEY DO SO. EXPECT THE PEAK IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOWS WILL
RESULT IN AL HE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING.
ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE PARENT LOW IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF SHEMYA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
JUST WEST OF SHEMYA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONTAL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AND HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND
WED. ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE CHAIN TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION ON THE LIQUID SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME MAY INITIALLY FALL AS
SNOW. THE WARMER AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE HIGHER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL AND AT THIS TIME WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON ANY HIGH WIND
WARNINGS.

LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS SHIFTING TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
EXPECT A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A STRONG
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 172 173 174 175 176
         GALE WARNING 130 131 160 170 171 177 178 179 411 412 413 414

FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SAM MAR 14