Small Craft Advisory 190, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST WED MAR 5 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A LOW OVER ALASKA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL "FRONT" DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THE ECMWF
AND NAM SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS VERY
WELL. THE GFS IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HANDLING THE LOW/UPPER FRONT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. AS A LOW WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE GULF FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. DUE TO THE RECENT SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE BY THE ECMWF...ITS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THE GFS IS NOW
TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF AND THIS BRINGS A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THE NAM IS THE
CLEAR OUTLIER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
THE ALASKAN UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST...PUSHING INTO THE BERING
SEA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED "FRONT" OVER THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY THU AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGIN LATER THURSDAY AS
THE GULF RIDGE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA TO FILL THE GAP LEFT BY
THE LOW THAT BY THIS TIME IS IN THE BERING SEA. ON FRIDAY A LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
THIS LOW DUE TO ITS TRAJECTORY AND ITS "COMPLEX" MAKEUP. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS TIME
FRAME OF THE FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE ALASKAN AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES...WHERE SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE
EFFECTS. AS THE ALASKAN LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA ON THURSDAY
THE GULF RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 175 176 177 178.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 14