Small Craft Advisory 141, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY FAIR SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE NAM OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS IN THE EAST LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHOICE. OTHERWISE...THE GFS/EC ARE REASONABLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STACKED LOW JUST EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND A SECONDARY CENTER APPROACHING THE KENAI PEN
CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND BERING ISLANDS. STRONG NE OUTFLOW WINDS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.

OUT WEST...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS THE SW MAINLAND. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAD WIND CHILLS IN THE 25
TO 35 BELOW RANGE. LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
AK PEN WITH STRONG NWLY WINDS AND SNOW SQUALLS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SE FROM A LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA...CENTRAL BERING...TO
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

UPPER LEVELS...
A UPPER LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES TO NEAR
BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY. NUMEROUS WAVES ROTATE AROUND THIS CENTER. THE
MAIN AREA OF IMPACT OF THESE WAVES WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE NORTHERLY JET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BERING SEA
ALONG WITH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. COLD AIR AIR SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BERING SEA AS THE LOW CENTER MOVING OVER BRISTOL BAY BROADENS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS AND UPPER WAVES IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE 970S LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING
WEAKENS. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF SAT MORNING THEN WEAKENS OVER THE KENAI PEN SAT
NIGHT/SUN. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT...THEN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY SAT AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST ON SAT. SNOW...ALTHOUGH  NOT AS
HEAVY WILL SPREAD IN REMAINING INLAND AREAS SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION ON THE DRY SIDE
THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTS NW. MARGINAL WIND CHILL CONDITIONS (25-35 BELOW) ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELTA INTO SAT...THEN SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH
SUN. STRONG NW WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE AK PEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW THOUGH WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SQUALLS INTO SAT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING
SEA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH GENERALLY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED TERM AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO YIELD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
MAINLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER INLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DEPEND ON THE EXACT POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW
AND THE VARIOUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. MEANWHILE...A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE BERING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN BERING BREAKS DOWN AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
AND PROVIDE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES 125 AND 141(UPCOMING).
MARINE...GALES...150 155 175 176 177 178 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC FEB 14