Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 8 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS NOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
VERTICALLY STACKED ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE MOISTURE INTO KODIAK
ISLAND TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THE LOW
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS WILL
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THE OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS BLOCKED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE
HOLDING THE CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO PRIBILOFS AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL DIG TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN. A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC COAST BY
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM THE ALCAN BORDER DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE ONSET OF
THE COLD ADVECTION STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS THE COLD AIR SHOOTS OUT THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND THE BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA INTO THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO SHOW UP TUESDAY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO KODIAK ISLAND...SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF
SUNDAY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH AND WEST AND THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION DIMINISHES. STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE WILL JUMP UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT THOUGH NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
HAS ELEVATED THE WILD FIRE CONCERN AGAIN AND WE HAVE ISSUED THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WIND COMBINED WITH
THE COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
BETWEEN 5 TO 30 BELOW IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAINLAND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND THE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH ENOUGH TO END THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND WILL CONTINUE THOUGH GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE COOLING TREND IN
THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES NORTH AND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURE TO THE GULF COAST AND WITH THAT INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 119 120 127 128 130 139 140 155 160 165 170 171 172

               173 174 175 176 179 180 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 139 140 160 179 180
                              181 185
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111

SAM FEB 14