Small Craft Advisory 107, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON FEB 3 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THAT IS AN
EXTENSION OF A LARGER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND UP TO THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON) AND DO NOT PROVIDE ANY FORECAST PROBLEMS. THUS
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE KODIAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A
LOBE STRETCHING OUT THE SOUTHWEST AND PROTECTING SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA. A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE
MOVED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND STRENGTHENED. THIS WILL
ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP AND OFFSHORE FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL BE SLOW
TO RETREAT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL ASSERT
ITSELF AND BEGIN TO PROTECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR A DRYING AND
COOLING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 174 175
                     176 177 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 14