Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2014

Small Craft Advisory 1024, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 21, 2014

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 21, 2014, 3:08 AM AKST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 21, 2014, 3:08 AM AKST (12:08 UTC)
Expired
Dec 21, 2014, 3:16 PM AKST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

226 
FZAK51 PAFC 211208
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220045-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING TO 986 MB. THE LOW THEN
ELONGATES AND BECOMES COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. A 977 MB LOW MOVES TO 350 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT LATE MON.

$$

PKZ119-220045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220045-
PORT VALDEZ-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220045-
VALDEZ ARM-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220045-
CHINIAK BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220045-
MARMOT BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$
1 follow-up statement
167 
FZAK51 PAFC 220016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221330-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE
AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MON NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 982 MB 390 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT TUE MORNING AND MOVE
TOWARD HAIDA GWAII TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-221330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221330-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221330-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221330-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221330-
MARMOT BAY-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 20, 4:22 PM AKST, 10 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 20, 4:22 PM AKST, 10 hours 46 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
422 PM AKST SAT DEC 20 2014

CORRECTION TO ADD MARINE WARNING

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AS THE 49TH STATE ANTICIPATES THE PSYCHOLOGICALLY IMPORTANT
TURNING POINT OF GAINING DAYLIGHT TOMORROW...THE WEATHER MAP
ACROSS THE STATE IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GULF...WITH NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PINWHEELING AROUND THE COMMON CENTER...AND THE
STRONGER WAVES ALSO HAVE A REFLECTION OF LOWER PRESSURES AT THE
SURFACE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW (ESTIMATED AROUND 969 MB)
DUE SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ARE
GIVING WAY TO A MORE STRATIFORM-LOOKING PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO RADAR RANGE. THIS LOW...COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE DRY
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE WINDS FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. AS RAIN/SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE GULF...THIS DRY AIR WILL
NEED TO BE MOISTENED UP IN ORDER FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.

TO THE WEST...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD DAY UNFOLDING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA IS SLOWLY MOVING
OUT INTO THE PACIFIC...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE
CURRENTLY BEING SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ALEUTIANS. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC AIR IS SPILLING DOWN FROM
THE BERING STRAIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING
SEA...KICKING OFF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT EXPANDS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE OVERWHELMING FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM (FIRST 2 DAYS)
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION CURRENTLY UNFOLDING IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS
SHIFTED TOWARD A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK INLAND TONIGHT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. AS THIS HAPPENS...CROSS-BARRIER
FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COOK INLET REGION. THE GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL BOTH
DEPART FROM THE CONSENSUS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI (GEM-
REGIONAL TO THE NORTH AND GFS TO THE SOUTH) AND WERE NOT
CONSIDERED IN FORECAST PREPARATION TODAY. THAT LEAVES BASICALLY
THE ECMWF AND THE NAM...THOUGH EVEN THEY HAVE A TIMING ISSUE
REMAINING. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH LANDFALL THAN
THE NAM...ALTHOUGH THE 18Z NAM HAS CLOSED THAT GAP SLIGHTLY. A
MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER PASS HAS FORTUNATELY SAMPLED THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND LENDS SUPPORT LARGELY TO THE FASTER
ECMWF SOLUTION. OF NOTE ALSO IS THE FACT THAT SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY SUGGESTS TWO DISCRETE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION IN THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST GULF...RATHER THAN A SINGLE ELONGATED PRESSURE
CENTER. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DEPICT A TWO-LOW SOLUTION.
AS YOU MIGHT GUESS...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST DOMAIN TODAY...LARGELY DUE TO SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE ACROSS
THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A NICE WARM CONVEYOR BELT SHOWING UP ON RADAR SATELLITE TODAY
LOOKS TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT THEN INLAND AS IT RAPIDLY WEAKENS. SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CORDOVA AND VALDEZ EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
WESTWARD OVER WHITTER AND SEWARD. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CHUGACH
SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE A HIGH PROBABILITY/LOW ACCUMULATION EVENT. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS LOOK TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ANCHORAGE TO KENAI. ONCE
THE SYSTEM PASSES TOMORROW MORNING THE SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSTABLE REGIME ALOFT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THE UNSTABLE FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN IT
MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IS QUIET HIGH WITHIN THIS REGIME BUT WHERE EXACTLY THEY
SET UP IS LESS CERTAIN. EXPECT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST TOMORROW AND MONDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING LOW POSITIONED OVER KODIAK WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THE REST OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN BERING WHILE STEADILY AMPLIFYING. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEAKENING LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...SLOWLY WEAKENING WINDS OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILTER DOWN OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/BERING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...KEEPING
SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS HEADING INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM BRINGING
IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC...THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OFF AS SNOW AND STEADILY
CHANGE TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BERING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LOW PLACEMENT IN THE WESTERN BERING ON
TUESDAY WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE GENERAL FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY GALE WINDS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING WITH STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES NORTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE FRONT SLOWS IN PROGRESSION ON THURSDAY
AS IS PUSHES INTO THE MAINLAND AND ELONGATES ITS BOUNDARY EASTWARD
INTO THE GULF. A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF MID WEEK WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION WHICH KEEPS MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF WATER AND SURROUNDING COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 127 177 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 20, 3:12 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Dec 20, 3:31 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC7 days

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2014Every small craft advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.