Small Craft Advisory 1007, NWS Anchorage, AK

891 
FZAK51 PAFC 180014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181215-
313 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 967 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE THU NIGHT AT 970 MB BEFORE MERGING
WITH ANOTHER 967 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE
313 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ120-181215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181215-
RESURRECTION BAY
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-181215-
PORT VALDEZ
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-181215-
VALDEZ NARROWS
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-181215-
VALDEZ ARM
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181215-
PASSAGE CANAL
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ131-181215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST
313 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-181215-
CHINIAK BAY
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-181215-
MARMOT BAY
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ139-181215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE
313 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181215-
KACHEMAK BAY
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA.
THERE ARE SEVERAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. ONE OF THESE
IS JUST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...WITH ANOTHER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF PARALLEL TO THE FIRST...AND ANOTHER IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THERE IS A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
ANOTHER ONE CENTERED OVER HOKKAIDO (ISLAND OF JAPAN).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT HOUR 60
OF THE FORECAST (3PM AKST THURSDAY)...THEN BEGIN TO SHOW
INCREASING GREATER SPREAD THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
ARE HOW THEY HANDLE THE SPEED/DEPTH OF A LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AND THE VARIOUS CENTERS OF A
COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...PROLONGED A LITTLE BY THE
THIRD TROUGH THAT MOVES ONSHORE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PROBABLY START AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
COMBINATION THEN SWITCH TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE WINDS ALOFT NEVER BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...BUT SOME IS POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL PUT US IN A PATTERN WHERE
WE HAVE PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL AREAS AND LITTLE OR NONE INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IMPROVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PREVIOUS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH IN THE BERING AND
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BRING A SHOWERY
REGIME THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WHILE INTERMITTENT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT MOST
AREAS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SYSTEM PROGRESSING SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY...BUT THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURNS...MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE ALEUTIANS CURRENTLY SIT BETWEEN THE UNSTABLE SHOWERY REGIME OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN THE BERING AND A NEW SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTH. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHILE THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
SEE SOME RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM MOVE OVERHEAD. GENERAL TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE
BERING SEA THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GULF LOW WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS
KODIAK ISLAND WHILE LOWS IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL SPIN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY...WITH
STRONG ZONAL (STRONG WESTERLY) FLOW BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WPC IS AGAIN GOING WITH ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS...A BASICALLY EVEN
SPLIT OF GFS...EC...AND NAF (WHICH IS A COMBINATION OF THE
CANADIAN MODELS AND THE GFS).

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 131 132 150 178 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&