Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

732 
WWAK62 PAFC 122301
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN IMMEDIATELY BUILD IN
OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND ALSO MIX
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL RH INHIBIT RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AKZ152-131515-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140513T2300Z-140514T0700Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.A.0009.140514T1800Z-140515T0800Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 11 PM AKDT
TUESDAY FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING 
  THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON/EVENING...RECOVERING INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS BY
  MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25
  MPH DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
  ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND
THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-131515-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140514T0000Z-140514T0800Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.A.0009.140514T1800Z-140515T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF BRISTOL BAY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM KING
SALMON NORTHWARD...

* LOCATION...ALL AREAS EXCEPT WESTERN CAPES AND THE ALASKA 
  PENINSULA SOUTH OF KING SALMON.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID 20S TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON/EVENING...RECOVERING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS BY EARLY
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
  TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
  MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
  OF THE NORTHWEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND
THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

485 
WWAK62 PAFC 131453
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
653 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY BUILDING BACK IN
OVER THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR
AND ALSO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INHIBIT RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES ACROSS BOTH
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY LATER THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RECOVER TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES.

AKZ152-140700-
/O.UPG.PAFC.FW.A.0009.140514T1800Z-140515T0800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140513T2300Z-140514T0700Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
653 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING 
  THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON/EVENING...RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25
  MPH DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
  MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL
  REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
  TODAY...AND CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-140700-
/O.UPG.PAFC.FW.A.0009.140514T1800Z-140515T0800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140514T0000Z-140514T0800Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
653 AM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM AKDT
THURSDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH 
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID 20S TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
  RECOVERING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO
  THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
  MID TO UPPER 50S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25
  MPH DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
  MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL
  REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
  TODAY...AND CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

164 
WWAK62 PAFC 132259
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
259 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND ALSO MIX
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INHIBIT RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES ACROSS BOTH THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY LATER THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RECOVER TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES.

AKZ152-141600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140513T2300Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
259 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS
  EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THIS
  EVENING...RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-141600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FW.W.0010.140513T2300Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
259 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS
  EVENING.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...IN THE MID 20S THIS EVENING...RECOVERING
  INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
  MID TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND
  THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
  60S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

166 
WWAK62 PAFC 140535
RFWALU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
935 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND ALSO MIX
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LINGERING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INHIBIT RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES ACROSS BOTH THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY LATER THIS WEEK...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RECOVER TO MORE
TYPICAL VALUES.

AKZ152-142145-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
935 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY HAS EXPIRED...

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RECOVERING TO NEAR 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON 
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE 
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

AKZ161-142145-
/O.EXP.PAFC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140514T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0012.140514T2000Z-140516T0600Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
935 PM AKDT TUE MAY 13 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
10 PM AKDT THURSDAY FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WIND FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY HAS EXPIRED...

* LOCATION...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RECOVERING INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT
  TUESDAY...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RH WILL RECOVER
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON 
  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE 
  NORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON MAY 12 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VESTIGES OF THE BLOCKED UPPER-LVL PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE
AOR...WITH A STATIONARY UPPER HIGH CENTER NEAR MERILL PASS. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS FLANKED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
AN OLD NE PACIFIC LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK AND A NW
PACIFIC LOW SW OF SHEMYA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN E SIBERIA MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE MAINLAND.
A 993 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED 500 MI SW OF SHEMYA AND NEARLY
STATIONARY. RAIN AND GALES ASSOCIATED WITH IT SMACK THE FAR
WESTERN CHAIN AND BERING SEA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AOR
IS LARGELY PRECIPITATION FREE. FOG/STRATUS ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF AND AKPEN AREAS UNDER A VERY STABLE AIRMASS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE AN ADEQUATE HANDLE ON THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES. THE
NAM HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ON TUE...THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE IN SPIRIT.
MODELS SHOW WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THE BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA CONSOLIDATING IN EARNEST AND BUILDING BACK
TOWARDS SW AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THE LOW SW OF SHEMYA IS DEPICTED FILLING AS IT MOVES TO AROUND 250
MILES NW OF SHEMYA BY EARLY WED. IN SHORT...THE RETURN OF A BLOCKED
PATTERN IS SHOWN SIMILARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TODAY ARE THE
MARINE LAYER IN COOK INLET. MUCH OF THE REAL ESTATE ALONG THE
INLET HAS BEEN SOCKED IN SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT AND PENDING IT'S
DEPTH...IT COULD TAKE TILL LATE AFTERNOON FOR IT TO RETREAT OR
BURN OFF. IN SOME LOCALES...IT MAY NOT BE TILL EVENING. THE SOONER
IT DOES RETREAT...THE WARMER THE HIGH TEMPERATUERS...AND VICE
VERSA. THE UPPER HIGH OVER SW AK SHOULD BE DAMPENING WITH TIME AND
IT'S ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WHICH MAY BE AIDING IN THE MARINE
LAYER'S SCOPE SHOULD WEAKEN. FORECAST CHALLENGES THEREAFTER ARE
NEARLY EXCLUSIVELY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE
DEGREE OF DRYNESS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT GROUND LEVEL POSSIBLY REACHING 40 TO 50 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
INTERIOR WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. WITH TEMPERATURES DURING MAX
HEATING WELL INTO 60S EXPECTED...THIS WOULD PUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER A LARGE SWATH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUE FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND BECAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE OCCURRING DURING A PERIOD WHEN IT IS TYPICALLY COOLEST
THIS WILL PROBABLY TEMPER THE FIRE DANGER FROM BECOMING WORSE. BUT
THE LOW HUMIDITY ALONE STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THE FIRE
DANGER INTO THURSDAY. MULTIPLE FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE BEING
PREPPED TO CAPTURE THIS THREAT IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPEN...
THE STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING/SW AK STILL LOOKS
TO RETARD EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN FRONT. RAIN
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL CHAIN...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW FILLS. OTHERWISE RUN OF THE
MILL FOG/STRATUS REGIME TO PERSIST IN EARNEST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BERING SEA IN A STABLE AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE STRENGTHENING BLOCKED
PATTERN MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER BY LATE WEEKEND...MODELS SEEM
TO BE TRENDING TO A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE AOR. IN GENERAL
TERMS...THE UPPER HIGH AND RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AK FOR QUITE SOME TIME WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OR LOW DIGGING DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TOWARDS SW AK OR THE
GULF OF AK. THE NET EFFECT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...WETTER CONDITIONS AND DRAMATICALLY LOWER TEMPERATURES. THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS PARTICULARLY ANOMALOUS WITH THE TEMPERATURE
COOL DOWN. OUT WEST...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
PREDOMINANT LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO SHARP UPPER-RIDGING. IN ESSENCE
THIS WOULD DIMINISH THE CHANCES FOR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR
FRONTS FROM TRACKING THROUGH THE BERING SEA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...177 178 411
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...(TUE) 152 161
               FIRE WEATHER WATCH...(WED) 111 121 141 145 152
                                          155 161

&&

JAM