Hurricane Force Wind Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

415 
FZAK62 PAFC 240003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 957 MB LOW NEAR 56N 176E WILL WEAKEN TO 968 MB NEAR 54N 167E
WED MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 978 MB NEAR 51N 162E
THU MORNING. A 976 MB LOW NEAR 47N 171E WILL TRACK TO 54N 180 
WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WED
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...E WIND 40 TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING
S 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT. SNOW. S OF 56N...SW WIND 40 TO
55 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 TO 32 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT EARLY BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT TOWARD
MORNING. SEAS 16 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT
DURING THE EVENING. S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S TO E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
447 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
WRAP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE GULF LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. IN ADDITION...MORE
CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS HITTING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT.
IT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL.

OUT WEST...A FRONT IS WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE LOW IS BEING STRENGTHENED DUE TO A 170 KT JET
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEEPEN INTO THE 950S BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH STORM TO HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE BIG PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF LOW CENTERS OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND WESTERN BERING IS A BIT OFF. THE FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE BERING SEA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEVELOPS A
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. TIMING OF FRONTS WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS. THE ENERGIES ASSOCIATED
AROUND THE LOW IS WHERE THE DISCREPANCIES CREEP INTO THE WEATHER
SCENARIOS. THE TIMING OF EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE
MAJOR LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE NARROWED DOWN AS THE GUIDANCE GETS AHOLD OF THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR LOW. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSOLIDATES ON A STRONG LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING OF FEATURES BUT
THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE BERING SEA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAINLAND. WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING...EVENTUALLY THE LOW SETS UP IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LAST BATCH OF SHOWERS IN THIS UNSTABLE PATTERN IS MOVING
INLAND THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE SUSITNA
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LAST DISTURBANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN COOK INLET REGION BEFORE DRYING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING BRIEF DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS BEFORE A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF
RETURNING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA INTO
MID WEEK. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW WEST OF
SHEMYA WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY...SHIFTING THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AS
THE FRONT MOVES INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE COASTLINE AND BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. PRECIPITATION WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE SNOW DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE IN
THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WITH
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN OVER THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK
INTO THE SYSTEM AND HELPING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN SPREAD THE GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST...REACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EASTWARD AS IT
WOBBLES NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS KEEPS A SHOWERY
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND TAKES PLACE ON
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING A WARMER AIR MASS TO SURGE ACROSS THE GULF
AND MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 179 180
         STORM 177 178 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1034 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     SNOW             4 W PALMER              61.60N 149.24W
12/22/2014  M0.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION

&&

RSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1046 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     SNOW             4 W PALMER              61.60N 149.24W
12/22/2014  M1.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION

&&

RSD