Gale Warning 859, NWS Anchorage, AK

665 
FZAK52 PAFC 280016
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281345-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 966 MB LOW 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB OVER EASTERN RUSSIA BY
MON AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW 370 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN
TO 991 MB 290 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND SUN EVENING AND
DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A 982 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR AT SAME STRENGTH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-281345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-281345-
BRISTOL BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-281345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-281345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-281345-
UNALASKA BAY-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-281345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-281345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-281345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-281345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-281345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ177-281345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ178-281345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-281345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-281345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-281345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-281345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
316 PM AKST SAT DEC 27 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING
AND HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 958 MB. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT IS
ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE IN THE FORM OF A RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE
CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. MOST OF THE BITE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS IN THE
FORM OF GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION QUITE NARROW
FROM DUTCH HARBOR UP TO THE PRIBILOFS. EAST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE...THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS CAUSING A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT THESE TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO KICK OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AROUND THE COOK INLET
AREA...BUT ARE MOST INTENSE AND PERSISTENT OVER WESTWARD FACING
SLOPES OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
WILL ZIP DOWN INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF
BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SECOND TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY GENERALLY FROM ANCHORAGE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE BERING WILL SLOW OR STALL IN
THE VICINITY OF KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LARGE PARENT LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE
TO SEND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NORTHWARD ALONG THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...AND IT IS THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES THAT
REPRESENT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE REASON THIS IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE STRONG WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY DEVELOP THROUGH FAVORED GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
ALSO THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT
EACH TIME ONE OF THIS WEAK IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH REPRESENTS AN
ADDITIONAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR EVEN HIGH WINDS. PREDICTABLY...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT
WITH THESE AND OTHER SMALL DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE HIGHER-THAN-
NORMAL IMPACT ON OBSERVED WEATHER. THE GLOBAL MODELS (NAMELY THE
GFS AND ECMWF) ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW. THUS WHEN IT COMES TO SOME OF THE SMALLER
LOCAL WIND DETAILS THE NAM WILL NOT BE TRUSTED TOO MUCH...EVEN
THOUGH IT DOES HAVE SUPERIOR RESOLUTION IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INITIAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS
FROM PARTS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS....WHERE THE SECOND WAVE RIGHT BEHIND IT WILL
FOCUS THE SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH (FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH). UPSLOPING
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO BE MOST INTENSE OVER WESTWARD FACING SLOPES
OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS WITH THE INITIAL WAVE...THEN
OVER THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS WITH THE NEXT WAVE.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS TRACKS FURTHER TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT...GAP WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TIGHTEN UP. WINDS SPECIFICALLY ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM WILL BECOME
VERY GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE BERING THIS EVENING
WILL CLIP THE SOUTHWEST AREAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SNOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND BRING EASTERLY WINDS CAPABLE OF BLOWING
THE SNOW AROUND SEVERELY ENOUGH WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR BLOWING SNOW IS WARRANTED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ENDING LAST
AROUND HOOPER BAY AND CHEVAK AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH NORTH..AND COMBINED WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WIDESPREAD FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY AREAS HAVE
ALREADY SEEN VISIBILITIES STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY.

THE MAIN THREAT AFTER THIS WILL BE A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
FORECASTED TO MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AKPEN INTO THE
EASTERN BERING. A POWERFUL JET STREAK...BOTH ALOFT AND IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL BECOME SITUATED ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF BRISTOL BAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
AS LATE AS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OUT
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...WITH A PAIR OF
LOWS IMPACTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN WITH MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN AND WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A PERIOD OF
RAIN AND WINDS TONIGHT...THE PRIBILOFS MAY GET SOMEWHAT LUCKY AND
REMAIN BETWEEN THESE TWO UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIMES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL HAVE SITUATED
ITSELF OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL FALLING AS RAIN. DUE TO THE MOISTURE FLUX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE 4
TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH STOUT CROSS
BARRIER FLOW KEEPING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY INITIALLY ON THE DRY
SIDE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND WEAKEN THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW AND BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY RAIN
FROM ANCHORAGE SOUTHWARD...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OBSERVED
OVER THE MAT-SU VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR THE ANCHORAGE
HILL SIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE AMPLIFYING NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE AND
A LOW IN THE BERING SEA COLLIDING WITH THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO SET
UP THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL WIND EVENT. THERE IS HOWEVER SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A LOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON WINDS HITTING WARNING LEVEL
OR ENDING UP JUST SHY. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WINDS UP WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH
NOW MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SHOULD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE...A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
MORNING.

THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING AND FALLING APART DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 185.
 GALE WARNING 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 173 174
177 178 179 180 181.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...CC