Gale Warning 818, NWS Anchorage, AK

761 
FZAK51 PAFC 091222
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100130-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 960 MB COMPLEX LOW 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO
70 NM NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK AT 970 MB LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW CENTER
WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-100130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ120-100130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ121-100130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-100130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-100130-
PORT VALDEZ-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-100130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-100130-
VALDEZ ARM-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-100130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-100130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-100130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-100130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-100130-
CHINIAK BAY-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-100130-
MARMOT BAY-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-100130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-100130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-100130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-100130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
322 AM AKST TUE DEC 9 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A VERY BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS FROM THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THAT FLOW IS
PRETTY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED IN THE WEST...THE MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE EAST ASIAN JET IS WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID-
LATITUDES AND STRONGLY ZONAL WITH A CORE OF 150 KT TO 180 KT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CONUS INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE...WHICH HAS TAKEN THE STORM TRACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A CLOSED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT KEEPS THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN STAGNATING FOR
THE TIME BEING.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHING THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING ON AN IDENTICAL TRACK AS THE
LAST STORM. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THAT IT HAS
ALREADY MATURED AND WILL NOT BE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES
KODIAK. THE PREVIOUS FRONT FROM YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
DISSIPATED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WHILE THE NEXT FRONT IS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON THE MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR. THE
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH LEAVES THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND IN GENERALLY WEAK DOWN-INLET FLOW. WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE
WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF AND BRISTOL BAY/EASTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF PUSHING ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND
STALLING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF TWO LOWS ENTERING THE EASTERN GULF
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...DISCREPANCIES ARE MINOR AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM WAS
UTILIZED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...

RAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS TAPERS OFF SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTH THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY...CONTINUES A THREAT
FOR SLICK CONDITIONS. DETAILS FOR THIS HAZARD WILL BE UPDATED IN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY SNOW EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OF GLENNALLEN
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING. AS FOR WINDS...STORM
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT
WITH GALES REMAINING ACROSS THE GULF AS THE NEXT LOW KEEPS A TIGHT
GRADIENT ALONG THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

OVERALL THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE AS
SURFACE LOWS KEEP ROTATING UP AND AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LATEST LOW HAS JUST
CROSSED THE PENINSULA AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST
INTO THE BERING. THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW IS KEEPING THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT AND THE SURFACE WINDS
NORTHERLY. NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY TURN EASTERLY AND
INCREASING SPEED MAKING WIND SHEAR A CONCERN FOR SEVERAL AIRPORTS
IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MOST CURRENT WAVE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREA. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM
AIR MASS OVER THAT AREA THIS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN.
FURTHER NORTH IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COLDER AND
LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY AS BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST. THE
12Z SOUNDING AT BETHEL LOOKS LIKE THE IDEAL THERMAL PROFILE FOR
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WERE THERE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW POSITION (AS COMPARED WITH
THE LAST ONE) THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH AND
KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THREAT LOW.

THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A VERY
SIMILAR TRACK CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SIMILAR IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE SURFACE LOWS CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN SWINGING
WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AS THEY WEAKEN AND FILL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER RUSSIA AND THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL KEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTING WITH PERIODIC WAVES ROTATING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
KEEP BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A DEVELOPING LOW OFF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LATE SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
LATE SUNDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AS THE GALE FORCE LOW COMING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
PUSHES INTO THE BERING SEA. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
DECAYING LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A SPELL OF NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OVER TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH INLAND AREAS
REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DIMINISH
GREATLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 181
         STORM...119 130
         GALE....120 125 131 132 136 137 138 139 177 178 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL/JR/MMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL/JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL/JR
LONG TERM...MMC