Gale Warning 810, NWS Anchorage, AK

586 
FZAK52 PAFC 071225
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080115-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT. A 960 MB LOW 40 NM SW OF CHIGNIK THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
TO 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIKOLSKI LATE MON NIGHT AT 964 MB. A 965 MB
LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK
LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-080115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-080115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-080115-
BRISTOL BAY-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-080115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NE 45 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT W OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-080115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-080115-
UNALASKA BAY-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-080115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-080115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-080115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-080115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-080115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-080115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-080115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-080115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-080115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM IN THE EVENING.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE
NEWENHAM.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-080115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
EVENING.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-080115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
325 AM AKST SUN DEC 7 2014

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN ALOFT IS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING OVER THE
GREAT LAND. THE JET STREAM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
WITH A 190 KT EAST ASIAN JET PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF...BUT DIPS SOUTHWARD BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS HAS LED TO A BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAND. THE
MAIN PLAYER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW
AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ITS REMNANT FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING ALOFT STRETCHES FROM WESTERN
CANADA AND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE ARE TWO
MAIN STORM SYSTEMS IN THE PATTERN. ONE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH THE JET JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND A CLOSED LOW SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT ARE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN GULF. HIGHER CLOUDS ENSHROUD MOST OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING PAST
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LIE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. A REMNANT SYSTEM OVER BRISTOL BAY IS BRINGING A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY
SPEAKING...HOWEVER THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THE PATTERN
BECOMES COMPLEX AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE
GULF TODAY IN TO SUNDAY TURNING INTO A COMPLEX LOW. THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITHIN THE LOW COMPLEX IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM EAST TO WEST. GUIDANCE
IS IN THE BALLPARK AS FAR AS SYSTEM STRENGTH BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND POSITION. THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM ARE
GROUPED TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH IMPACTING KODIAK DIRECTLY. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST
DOMAIN PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TODAY AND SUNDAY)...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE COASTS WITH
A MIXTURE INLAND...EXCEPT FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST
FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEST OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STORM CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BRING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO
THE COASTAL AS WELL AS OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS. GAP LOWS WILL ALSO
BE ENHANCED ACROSS LAND ZONES...ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE
VALLEY...MAT VALLEY...AND LOCALS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. THOUGH
STILL WINDY...MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE WILL HAVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM WILL BE DRY TODAY AND THEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ON SUN SOME WARMER AIR WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH JUST SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE ZONE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DELTA WILL HAVE A SHARP LINE SEPARATING COLD AND
WARMER AIR. THE LATTER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF BETHEL THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. TODAY THE DELTA WILL HAVE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF BETHEL. THE REGION WILL BE DRY
TONIGHT ,,,BUT ON SUN RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FROM BETHEL NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN
LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA REFUSES TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS IS KEEPING A LOT OF
COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE ARCTIC. MEANWHILE...AN ALMOST EQUALLY
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST...THE PATTERN REMAINS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE 150 KT NORTH PACIFIC JET CLIPS
THAT AREA MID WEEK. THE NET EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
CONTINUED MILD AND WET CONDITIONS NEAR AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LOW. ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW...COLDER SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL WRAP NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INTERMITTENT GALES ACROSS
THE BERING. OVERALL THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN
DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...KEEPING SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT TIMING OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A FEW INTERESTING NOTES FOR NEXT WEEK. ONE...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG LOW COMING OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND (DEC 13-14). THIS LOW DOES SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO BE CENTER OVER THE
BERING RATHER THAN THE GULF OF AK. THIS COULD BRING SOME MORE
ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE. NUMBER TWO...ANCHORAGE IS APPROACHING AN
ALL-TIME RECORD FOR LATEST DATE OF THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF A
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD
APPEARS TO BE 15 DEC 2002. UNTIL WE SEE A BIG PATTERN
CHANGE...THIS RECORD REMAINS IN JEOPARDY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 136 137 139 160 165 175 177 178 180 185
         STORMS 119 120 130 131 132 138 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP