Gale Warning 776, NWS Anchorage, AK

735 
FZAK62 PAFC 150019 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

CORRECTED 412

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151415-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 56N 166W WILL MOVE TO 58N 174WW AT 974 MB TUE
AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW NEAR 58N 177W DISSIPATES LATE MON
AFTERNOON. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 50N 171E TONIGHT MOVES TO 51N 177W
TUE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

$$

PKZ411-151415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 12
TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 11 TO
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-151415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

CORRECTED

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF 57N. SEAS
12 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-151415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-151415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT EXCEPT NE 25 TO 40 KT N OF 56N.
SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

254 
FZAK62 PAFC 151205
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 AM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160245-
305 AM AKST MON DEC 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 969 MB LOW NEAR 56N 162W WILL MOVE TO 59N 168W AT 974 MB THIS
EVENING THEN TO 61N 171W AT 975 MB TUE NIGHT. A 988 MB LOW NEAR
48N 176W WILL MOVE TO 50N 165W AT 992 MB THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DISSIPATE.

$$

PKZ411-160245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 AM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT EXCEPT NE 20 TO 30 KT N OF 58N. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 20 TO 30 KT N OF 58N.
SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-160245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TODAY...N TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE...N TO W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-160245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TODAY... W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-160245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 AM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT EXCEPT W 15 TO 25 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 9
TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...WW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

348 
FZAK62 PAFC 160005
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161430-
305 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND BRISTOL
BAY CONSOLIDATES TONIGHT INTO A A 975 MB LOW NEAR 60N 169W.
THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 982 MB WED AFTERNOON NEAR 60N 176W. A
984 MB LOW NEAR 50N 173E WEAKENS TO 987 MB TUE EVENING NEAR 51N
176W AND THEN DISSIPATES.


$$

PKZ411-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 57N.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-161430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 PM AKST MON DEC 15 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST SUN DEC 14 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE THE MAIN FEATURES FOR THE AREA. ONE
HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING AND IS TRACKING EAST TOWARDS
BRISTOL BAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE OTHER LOW IS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND IS HEADED TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND. IT IS BRINGING UP MORE
WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS ALREADY
BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE INITIALIZING POORLY WITH IDENTIFICATION OF FEATURES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHOWS UP IN POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT MODELS BY 30 HOURS OUT AND GETS WORSE IN THE MID TERM.
THE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLEX WITH VARIOUS LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE
BERING AND GULF AND THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE WITH PLACEMENT
OF THESE LOWS. OVERALL MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SOLID RAIN SHIELD SITS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AT THE
LOW/FRONT APPROACH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED
TO COASTAL AREAS BUT SOME FLURRIES ARE SURVIVING THE DRY AIR
INDUCED BY THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE CHUGACH. THE 12Z
ANCHORAGE SOUNDING INDICATED A WARM LAYER SO FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD
BE VERY LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS MAINLY DRY IN THE COOK INLET REGION WITH SEASONALLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE INLET
TODAY WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET PUSHING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY WILL BRING
LIGHT ACCUMULATION SNOW TO MANY AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES TOWARD THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA. PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW THIS MORNING BUT TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR
POSSIBLY ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS "WARMER" AIR GETS
ADVECTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXTEND FROM DILLINGHAM NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
EXISTS WITH THE WARM LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THE 12Z PAKN RAOB
SHOWS A VERY SHALLOW AREA ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH HINTS AT
PRECIPITATION STAYING IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AS SOME OF THE WARMER
AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD...WE COULD SEE THAT WARM NOSE BECOME DEEPER
AND POSE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN. OTHERWISE...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND INTO MONDAY...WITH GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND NEAR THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
SEEN AROUND THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY RESIDES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR/UNALASKA AND IS NEARLY AT PEAK INTENSITY. WEAK
RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS HAS CREATED A COMPACT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF UNALASKA.
ISALLOBARIC FLOW WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS UP TO 65 MPH
(ALREADY OBSERVED AT NIKOLSKI) IN THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE UPPED THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TO STORM FORCE
WINDS DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES. OTHERWISE...RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER
OFF TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE JET STREAM MAINTAINS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WHICH KEEPS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS IT PUSHES MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM THE
WESTERN BERING TO THE EASTERN GULF. MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF WAS
PREFERRED AS IT PERFORMED BETTER ON THE LATEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING
EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK. MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MID WEEK CHANGES OVER TO MAINLY
SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH ADVECTS COLDER AIR FROM
THE BERING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRESENTS THE BIGGEST WEATHER
CHALLENGE AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE GULF...BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
AND DIFFERENCES THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 119 170
         GALES 120 125 129 130 139 150 155 165 171 172 173 174
               175 176 177 179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...TP