Gale Warning 764, NWS Anchorage, AK

615 
FZAK62 PAFC 020009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021415-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 57N 179E WILL MOVE TO 51N 164W AT 989 MB TUE
EVENING THEN TO 48N 156W AT 992 MB WED AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO 51N 174E AT 997 MB WED MORNING. A 998 MB LOW FORMS
NEAR 59N 166W WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. N OF 56N...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 36 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING N 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2014

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

916 
FZAK62 PAFC 021235
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030230-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 175W MOVES TO 50N 163W AT 994 MB TUE
NIGHT THEN CONTINUES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH WED. A 1003 MB KAMCHATKA
LOW MOVES TO 51N 171E TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 51N 176W WHILE
STRENGTHENING TO 977 MB WED NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING N 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-030230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
335 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 
13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
915 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIBERIA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE TROUGH IS BEING REINFORCED BY A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS ALSO ADVECTING COLDER AIR INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS (LIKELY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE IN
PRECIP-TYPE TO SNOW ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOT ANY OBSERVATIONS TO
CONFIRM THIS). AS ONE SHORT-WAVE DIGS ANOTHER IS LIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE WEST SIDE OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONG FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE BERING SEA
(WITH TPW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL).

AT THE SURFACE A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL BERING IS
DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH A LEADING WARM FRONT TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. 12Z SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS STORM (SAINT PAUL/COLD BAY) SHOW THAT THE
INVERSIONS ARE NOT VERY STEEP...MEANING THERE IS NOT MUCH TILT TO
THE WARM FRONT. WITH THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING PRECIP TENDS TO QUICKLY
CHANGE FROM ALL SNOW TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY WITH VERY LITTLE
TRANSITION THROUGH PRECIP-TYPES. LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE WARM FRONT
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING...STARTING AS SNOW
BUT ALREADY CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS. AS POINTED OUT...THIS IS NOT A GREAT
SET-UP FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WITH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM BEFORE
SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE CAN BE SCOURED OUT. SINCE FREEZING
RAIN WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE MINOR.

MEANWHILE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE DUE TO AN EXITING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK OUTFLOW WIND EVENT ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF STRATUS AND A FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE COOK INLET TO MAT-SU
REGION...THOUGH WITH A WEAK INVERSION (AS PER THE 12Z ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING) EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT BY LATER TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ALTHOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SLACKEN THIS EVENING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
OVERHEAD AND GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP GAP WINDS
GOING A LITTLE LONGER...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALDEZ AREA AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND CAUSE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP.

THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WILL APPROACH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH THE RIDGE MOVING
OVERHEAD OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THUS EXPECT WEAK OVERRUNNING OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND VERY LIGHT QPF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT
INLAND WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SOME ABOVE FREEZING AIR MAY MAKE IT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH PRECIP IN THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL. FOR NOW WILL
JUST KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND REEVALUATE WITH THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE.

AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PRODUCING
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FOR THE WESTERN KENAI/ANCHORAGE/MAT VALLEY.
THUS...AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVE THROUGH ON
TUE EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL AND MATSU VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FOR THE ANCHORAGE BOWL THROUGH THE MATSU VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THEN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH
OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ENTRANCE THIS EVENING BEFORE TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARDS YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE WHITTIER AREA
WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN
UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG FORMING UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BY MONDAY THE
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN END OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA...INLAND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN COAST HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INLAND
TODAY...BRINGING SNOW TO THE INLAND AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND BRISTOL BAY AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST ARE
ON THE RISE...WITH OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING A TRANSITION
FROM SNOW TO RAIN. AS THIS WARMER AIR TRACKS FURTHER INLAND THIS
EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AREAS PRONE TO HOLD ONTO THE
COLDER OFFSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW (INLAND AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND BRISTOL BAY AREA...AS WELL AS THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY) WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN. AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL END. PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TUESDAY...AS THE BERING LOW WEAKENS AND TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FROM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS
THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...BRINGING COOLER
WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED INSTABILITY THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER
WEST...AN AREA OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN
SOME STRONGER GUSTS FROM ALOFT AND BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW THROUGH LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE BERING TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC ON
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH SLOPE WILL
QUICKLY REPLACE IT. WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LOWS AT THE SURFACE ...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT OF TROUGHING FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERY
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH WAVES OF PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR. MODEL
AGREEMENT THEN DIMINISHES SEVERELY INTO ON SATURDAY...SO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON WPC...WITH GENERALLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155 161.
MARINE...STORMS 177 178.
GALES 150 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 179 180 181 185 411 413
414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DEK