Gale Warning 746, NWS Anchorage, AK

727 
FZAK51 PAFC 211601 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES 125 130 AND 138 

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220430-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 958 MB LOW MOVES 50 NM NORTH OF SAND POINT FRI MORNING BEFORE
MOVING TO 90 NM WEST OF SAND POINT AT 967 MB SAT MORNING. THIS LOW
BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FRI MORNING WILL STALL ALONG THE
COAST BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-220430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATE

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT N OF SMITH ISLAND. E WIND
GUSTING TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE THIS MORNING. SEAS 6
FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF SMITH ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220430-
PORT VALDEZ-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220430-
VALDEZ ARM-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATE

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT DURING THE MORNING.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220430-
CHINIAK BAY-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220430-
MARMOT BAY-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 10 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPDATE

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
701 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

009 
FZAK51 PAFC 220035
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221345-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 962 MB LOW 55 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO 80 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAND POINT AT 987 MB SUN AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-221345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221345-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221345-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221345-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-221345-
MARMOT BAY-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD BUT RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
160-180KT JET STREAM NEAR 45N IS FLOWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. A QUICK LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ONE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH...CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS STORM
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG JET STREAM AND BOTTOMED OUT THIS MORNING
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT
IS IMPACTING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
COASTLINE WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS AND YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND
INTO THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE BEFORE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN
THE FORM OF NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA.

FURTHER NORTH...LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP
A CLASSIC DOWNSLOPE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS UPPER COOK INLET. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD HOLD AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

OUT WEST...COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO ONCE AGAIN FILTER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. DRIVEN BY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE
LEADING TO PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT THE SURFACE...SO PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALL ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AS WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING GIVEN THE VERY
SLOW EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM AND GEM REGIONAL) ARE
FAVORED TODAY IN ORDER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SUPERIOR
DEPICTION OF STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT AND THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE COAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK MOSTLY DRY. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH SNOW MAY MIX IN AT TIMES AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND THOMPSON PASSES...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
GULF AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE
PORTAGE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW IS BRINGING
UP WARM AIR WITH IT WHICH WILL KEEP THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY AREAS IN RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL BE
COLDER AND COULD SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH OVERRUNNING THE COLDER AIR IN THESE TWO
LOCATIONS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO BE MIXED
IN. BUT WITH THE LOW OVERALL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THERE SHOULD
BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH NONE EXPECTED TOMORROW. OUT WEST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THAT WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
DIFFERENCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE ALL
GENERALLY SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF/PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. OTHER THAN PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/GULF COAST...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS
UNTIL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ARE IRONED OUT IN THE
COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO GRADUALLY TREND BACK
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH NO BIG COLD SNAPS ON
THE HORIZON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&