Gale Warning 688, NWS Anchorage, AK

907 
FZAK62 PAFC 252356
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
256 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261445-
256 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 985 MB LOW AT 49N 173W WILL MOVE TO 54N 172W LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO 994 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 60N 175W WED
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WED EVENING. A 977 MB LOW AT 56N 169E WILL
MOVE TO 57N 169E WED MORNING AT 987 MB THEN DISSIPATE WED
AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW AT 49N 176E LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 55N
176W LATE WED NIGHT AT 986 MB THEN TO 59N 175W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
256 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 30 KT E OF 177E IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
256 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
W OF 176W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
256 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF 176W.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
256 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

417 
FZAK62 PAFC 260944
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1244 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED ZONE 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270045-
1244 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 985 MB LOW AT 49N 173W WILL MOVE TO 54N 172W LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO 994 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 60N 175W WED
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WED EVENING. A 977 MB LOW AT 56N 169E WILL
MOVE TO 57N 169E WED MORNING AT 987 MB THEN DISSIPATE WED
AFTERNOON. A 982 MB LOW AT 49N 176E LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO 55N
176W LATE WED NIGHT AT 986 MB THEN TO 59N 175W THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-270045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
1244 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 30 KT E OF 177E IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
1244 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
W OF 176W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
1244 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF 176W.
SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270045-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
1244 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 55 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
605 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A DEEP (503 DM AT 500 MB) UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
BERING SEA. THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING.
THERE IS A BROAD NORTH/SOUTH TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A LONG OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHWEST BERING LOW THAT STRETCHES FROM THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
ATKA...THEN AS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAINLAND/GULF TROUGH
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THOSE AREAS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS
(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON). THE MAIN DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE SURFACE
LOWS OUT WEST. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A LOW THAT FORMS ON THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND RACES NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
BERING SEA TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 THROUGH 2)...

A DISTURBANCE ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE
SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH LIGHTER AND MORE
SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND ANCHORAGE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE AN
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH INCREASING GAP WINDS NEAR THE
GULF COAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND TOWARD THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG INVERSIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL CAUSE FOR PERSISTENT FOG AND STRATUS IN LOW
LYING AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS STRATUS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY LIMITED TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET WITH RIDGING CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL BECOME LOW COMPLEX OVER MUCH OF THE BERING THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE IS NOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A LOW APPROACHING
ATKA LATE TUESDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. YET
ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY DEVELOP BEHIND IT ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE
BERING AND APPROACHING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND AK AND THE GULF WEDNESDAY...WITH A
CUT-OFF LOW EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS CREATES
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY BENEATH
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE BERING CUT-OFF LOW CUTS THROUGH THE
RIDGE...CHANGING THE DRIER AND COOLER HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN INTO
ONE WITH SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...AREAS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SHOWERY CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS TYPICAL WITH WAVES MOVING
THROUGH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES AS THEY TRAVERSE THE AREA.

THE FORECAST FOR THE BERING IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO
CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO A SOLUTION REGARDING THE COMPLEX LOW AND MULTIPLE
VORTICIES THAT TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING BEFORE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE BERING SEA THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO COME CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WILL
TRACK THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING BY THURSDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A NEW LOW OFF THE COAST OF
JAPAN WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
CHAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170 172 173 174 175 176 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP