Gale Warning 660, NWS Anchorage, AK

599 
FZAK51 PAFC 301527 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES 121 129 130 131 AND 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA COAST UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK
INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310330-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW 100 NM S OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 70 NM W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AT 992 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. A 982 MB LOW
WILL FORM NEAR KODIAK ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO 140 NM
E OF KODIAK CITY AT 982 MB EARLY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-310330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-310330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-310330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-310330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-310330-
PORT VALDEZ-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-310330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-310330-
VALDEZ ARM-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-310330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-310330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-310330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-310330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-310330-
CHINIAK BAY-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-310330-
MARMOT BAY-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-310330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-310330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-310330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-310330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
727 AM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

214 
FZAK51 PAFC 302349
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311245-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA FRI MORNING. A SECONDARY 979 MB LOW
WILL FORM 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK FRI MORNING THEN MOVE TO 30
NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 981 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-311245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE COAST. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-311245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-311245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-311245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25
KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-311245-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-311245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-311245-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-311245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. WIND DIMINISHING
TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-311245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-311245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-311245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 20 KT...SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-311245-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-311245-
MARMOT BAY-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-311245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-311245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-311245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-311245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 PM AKDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

323 
FZAK51 PAFC 311200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010045-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 50 NM S OF SEWARD WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.
A 981 MB LOW WILL FORM 30 NM E OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVE TO 50 NM S OF SEWARD AT 979 MB SAT MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-010045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010045-
PORT VALDEZ-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010045-
VALDEZ ARM-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING THEN BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 
10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010045-
CHINIAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010045-
MARMOT BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...STRONGEST WINDS ALONG OUTER BAY. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVELS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CU OVER THE
GULF WITH SEVERAL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE STACKED CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. A SHORT WAVE CAN ALSO BE SEEN MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN COOPER RIVER BASIN. THE RIDGE IS STILL
HOLDING ON OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE TROUGH NEAR
KAMCHATKA DIGS.

SURFACE...
OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS THE
MATANUSKA(MAT) VALLEY WITH AREAS OF FINE GLACIAL SILT BEING
OBSERVED. SHOWERS WITH WAVES ROTATING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GULF WERE STARTING TO IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

OUT WEST...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTED OVER THE AK PEN. WINDS
SHIFTED TO A SW DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE SW MAINLAND GENERALLY HAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. THE DELTA WAS THE EXCEPTION WITH SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH A A WEAK TROUGH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (SHORT TERM)...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS FAVORED
SOLUTIONS DIFFER BY AREA AND TIMEFRAME. IN THE EAST...THE GEM
REGIONAL IS DOING A BETTER JOB CAPTURING THE PRESSURE FIELD AND
RESULTANT MESOSCALE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND MAT VALLEY. THE
GFS/EC ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SOMEWHAT REASONABLE WITH
THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS. OUT WEST...THE ECMWF WESTWARD SOLUTION IS A
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH THE STRONG LOW IMPACTING THE
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA THU AND FRI. THE OTHER MODELS(GFS/NAM/GEM
GLOBAL) ALL HAVE SIMILAR PRESSURES BUT CARRY THE LOW FURTHER EAST BY
FRI AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THU WITH SLIGHTER
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS INLAND. CHANCES OF SNOW OR MIX INCREASE
INLAND ACROSS THE KENAI...ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATSU FRI AND SAT AS A
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PEN AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL GENERALLY HOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND
MAT VALLEY...SO EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW WINDS AGAIN ACROSS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND MAT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS (NEG ANCHORAGE TO
WHITTIER) WILL INCREASE THU AND PRODUCE GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR
WHITTIER.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...BUT OTHERWISE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OFFSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT BERING
LOW REACHES THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THEN ADVANCES INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT. THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE LARGE LOW HEADING TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. THE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES UNDER A STRONG
UPPER JET AS IT MOVES TO NEAR AMCHITKA IN THE UPPER 970S/LOWER
980S THU MORNING THEN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE 960S OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL
DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON LOW POSITIONING.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AFTER IT MOVES NORTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WEST ALEUTIANS(E OF KISKA) FOR THU. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WARNING
LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH UNALASKA AT THIS POINT AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EVEN WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT (INCLUDING FROM THE ENSEMBLES)
YESTERDAY...THERE STILL MANAGED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PROJECTED LOW TRACK THIS WEEKEND FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS. THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE BERING ON FRIDAY...AND ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP A DISTINCT TRIPLE POINT LOW OR WEAK WAVE OVER THE GULF
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS DID NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE GULF COAST (WHICH REMAINS RAINY THROUGH NEXT WEEK) BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THAT DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHUGACH RANGE WILL KEEP THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE BERING LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
SETUP WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW WINDS FOR
THE GULF COAST WITH GENERALLY A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

ONCE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE LONG TERM FORECAST QUICKLY SHIFTS TO A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIBERIAN LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ENSEMBLE BLEND WAS USED AGAIN FOR THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH
THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE SIBERIAN LOW IS STILL PROJECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE BERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
WEEK...DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
NEXT WEEK.

&&

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 187 AND 191
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175 176 177.
         STORM 170 171 172 173 174.
         GALE 127 155 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC/DEK OCT 14