Gale Warning 615, NWS Anchorage, AK

884 
FZAK51 PAFC 101154
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110100-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 968 MB 215 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO 979 MB 45 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INLAND SAT AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW WILL APPROACH 375 NM SOUTH OF
CAPE SUCKLING LATE SAT NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-110100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT EARLY BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-110100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-110100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-110100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S TOWARD EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-110100-
PORT VALDEZ-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-110100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-110100-
VALDEZ ARM-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-110100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-110100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT NEAR THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-110100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-110100-
CHINIAK BAY-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-110100-
MARMOT BAY-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-110100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-110100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT EARLY BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-110100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-110100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
354 AM AKDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
556 AM AKDT THU OCT 9 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS THE
STORM FORCE LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 MILES SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR. STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM EXTEND ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH
GALES OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE BERING AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. A STRONG FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...SPREADING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND. FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK
BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ALL GUIDANCE PERFORMING SIMILARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH
AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF ON FRIDAY
AND ALSO WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
COAST LATER TODAY. UTILIZED THE NAM/GEM EARLY ON FOR ENHANCED
DETAIL AND THEN GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE EC FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH RAIN REACHING
THE COAST BY LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INLAND THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER TONIGHT. LOCATIONS FROM THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL TO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL...BUT A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT BUT NORTHERLY WINDS ALLOW COLDER AIR REMAIN IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WHERE THE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY
TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BE SCOURED OUT. THIS INCLUDES EAST ANCHORAGE
AND EAGLE RIVER AS WELL AS THE BUTTE AREA IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS ALL SNOW BUT WARMER
AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ALOFT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ITSELF MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SEE ONLY A GLANCING BLOW FROM
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GULF TODAY...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY COASTAL PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY FROM
DILLINGHAM EAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
PRIMARILY BE IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH THE NORTHERLY
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
BERING AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE AREA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
A MORE SHOWERY REGIME BY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO MIX IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. FARTHER WEST...RAIN AND GALES WILL GRADUALLY
START TO WIND DOWN TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUN THROUGH WED...
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUE TO BE A COLD TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE AK WEST COAST THROUGH THE GULF AND A SHARP
RIDGE OVER THE BERING. THE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN RESPONSE TO
MODERATELY STRONG PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF THE POLAR VORTEX
AND PUSHING THROUGH THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. WHILE THESE PIECES
ARE NOT DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE MAINLAND AT THIS POINT...THEY DO
REVEAL THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX AND ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY. RATHER THAN PUNCHING UP
THROUGH THE COOK INLET AS THE EC DEPICTED YESTERDAY...MODELS NOW
GENERALLY PAINT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW GETTING
SHEARED OUT STRETCHING FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA INTO THE GULF.

THE PATTERN GETS EVEN MORE COMPLICATED TO START NEXT WEEK AS
REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON VONGFONG GET SWEPT UP IN OUR 120-130KT
JET. THIS WILL SERVE TO ULTIMATELY REINFORCE SOME TROUGHING OVER
THE GULF. BUT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WOULD NOW STOP THE TRULY COLD AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE AK
RANGE. IN FACT...MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WOULD LIKELY BE IN A
NEUTRAL-ADVECTION OR WARM-AIR-ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS LOW VARIES VASTLY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL BY MID-WEEK. BUT MOST MODELS DO AGREE THAT BY
THAT TIME...RIDGING FROM THE BERING WILL START TO PUSH EAST AND
SHOULD BRING A DRYING TREND TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 131 138 150 155 170 173 179
         GALE WARNING 119 120 132 136 137 139 160 165 172
                      174 175 176 177 180 181 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

CB/MO OCT 14